Charles Krauthammer has written a
provocative essay published in National Review Online about the decline of the West. As usual, what Krauthammer writes is well worth reading. Krauthammer points to the moment 25 years ago when the Soviet Union collapsed and the Cold War ended with a Western and predominantly and American triumph. The values of western democracy were on the march around the globe. Now, just a quarter of a century later, the authoritarians are back on the move as democratic, western values are in retreat. Krauthammer points to Russia, Iran and China as the "rising authoritarians" and further mentions the drift toward authoritarianism in Europe. He credits some of that to president Obama's pull back from the world but also mentions that he expects Donald Trump to continue that movement albeit for a different reason. Krauthammer predicts that any American withdrawal would lead to world chaos.
Krauthammer's review of the past is accurate, but his predictions may not be. In fact, they seem off base to me. Think about it for a moment.
The single most important part of America's pre-eminent position in the world comes from our economy, not our military. For decades, we alone have been able to fund the massive cost of leading the world. Indeed, the most commonly accepted view of the American triumph in the Cold War is that the USA spent the Soviet Union to death. Moscow was just not able to keep pace with the dizzying cost of being a world power, especially as president Reagan upped the ante. More than Obama's pull backs from the world in places like Iraq, Ukraine and Afghanistan, it has been Obama's anti-growth moves that have hurt US standing. Had America just had average economic growth during Obama's two terms, our economy would now be over two trillion dollars larger each year. That extra growth would have given the federal government enough extra revenue to close the entire budget deficit and lead to a slight surplus.
The biggest point about Donald Trump's expected impact on our national strength is that Trump will take pro-growth actions for the American economy. Faster growth will provide the strength for America to meet its obligations around the world. Obviously, faster growth will also be a major benefit to the American people who Obama seemed to forget as he cut growth to promote one or another liberal talking point. Who could forget all the damage Obama did to the energy industry with limitations placed there in the name of fighting climate change, even though none, NONE, of the move had any meaningful impact on that issue. Trump, on the other hand, views most things through a prism of what is good for the American economy (and the American people). It is a difference that cannot be overlooked.
But Trump is not just someone who will promote economic growth. He is also someone who is not stuck in the structures of the world that have been built by past American leaders and our allies and adversaries. First we have the remnants of the Cold War. NATO worked wonders in keeping Soviet troops out of Western Europe, but that danger is gone. Russia may be a rising authoritarian state according to Krauthammer, but Putin's Russia is a mere shadow of the old Soviet Union. It has half as many people, lacks the Warsaw Pact to back it up, and is an economic weakling to boot. The weakness of Russia does not mean that NATO must go, but rather than it needs to be updated to meet current problems in order to remain relevant. Trump pushed for NATO to address terrorism, something that it really was not doing a decade and a half after 9-11. That change is in the works already.
Second, we have the American tactic of acquiescence to a great many moves by our adversaries. America was the colossus that bestrode the world; we could afford to step back and allow others to take actions we did not like. In theory, it made us and our power more acceptable to these other nations. For nearly 20 years, our elites have theorized that American influence around the world was a bad thing, so we would do best to limit it. That was an undercurrent during the years prior to Obama, but it certainly has been the world view of the Obama years. Russia invaded its neighbor Georgia in 2008 and was sanctioned by the world. When Obama took office some six months later, he promptly announced a reset and took off all the sanctions. When Russia took Crimea, no meaningful sanctions hit the Russians and there was certainly no American reactions. Ditto when Putin's forces invaded eastern Ukraine. Obama ran from confronting Iran during the protest marches in the streets of Teheran that might have actually overthrown the mullahs. He raced to get out of Iraq and left a vacuum that spawned ISIS. When the Chinese moved to take the South China Sea, Obama took symbolic action, but nothing concrete ever happened. For the last eight years, our relationship with the Chinese has been China takes an action and the USA reacts mildly, no matter what the Chinese do.
Trump's biggest move on the world stage is that he will end the American policy of not using our power or defending our interests. If anyone doubts this, just look at Trump's phone call with the Taiwanese president. Taiwan is our friend and ally. For forty years we have lived with a fiction designed to placate China that we really do not recognize Taiwan. Trump undermined that fiction with one phone call, and now the Chinese are in a tizzy. Imagine, instead of just acquiescing to China and its views, the USA took a step on its own. It's a nice way of telling China that things have changed. The same is true when it comes to things like trade. Despite the collective horror of all the pundits and "experts" who predict trade wars due to Trump's actions, we have already seen some major moves by our trading partners. The leaders of both Canada and Mexico have said that they are open to renegotiation of NAFTA. Let's see what an updated version of this treaty looks like. The TPP which was more of an encyclopedia of rules for special interests than a true "free trade" agreement is dead. We will see quickly if Trump and his people can negotiate bilateral deals to replace it.
Put all this together and our adversaries will find the USA less predictable and more protective of its own interests. Something that benefits others but does nothing for us or, worse yet, imposes costs on the USA will no longer sail through with the blessings of the American government.
It really is too soon to see how all these rules will change once Trump and his people take office. One thing is certain, however, the change that the media and the so-called "experts" fear will not likely be a bad thing. The American people chose change, and they are about to get it.
