Saturday, October 6, 2018
Friday, October 5, 2018
Put It All Together
There are a few things today that we ought to put together as we look forward to next month's elections:
1. It now seems certain that Bret Kavanaugh will be confirmed as a Supreme Court Justice. With today's statements from senators Collins and Manchin, Kavanaugh has 51 votes declared in his favor. That's all he needs. This is a major victory for President Trump and the Republicans despite the most disgusting and dishonest bit of character assassination ever seen in the senate. Trump never backed down and even the Republicans in the senate stayed firm.
2. The latest Rasmussen poll gives President Trump an approval rating of 51%. This is his highest rating in a year and a half. It is also higher than where Obama at a comparable time in his first term. Despite a non-stop attack by the Democrats and the media, Trump's approval numbers keep rising.
3. That same Rasmussen poll gives Trump an approval by 35% of African Americans and just under half of Hispanics. These are extremely high numbers for a Republican president. Remember, we have just finished two years plus of attacks from the left that label Trump a racist who hates Hispanics etc.
4. Yesterday, the generic congressional poll results showed the Democrats with a 2% lead. This is just one poll, but a 2% lead in these polls normally translates into a Republican victory in both houses.
5. The latest attack by the media on the President comes in a very lengthy article in the NY Times that attacks Trump because of tax moves made by his father (who died 21 years ago). Some of the items that the Times raises date back to roughly 1950. Seriously, I'm not kidding. The Times worries about how Trump's father supposedly gave his son a salary starting in 1950. I don't pretend to know what everyone in America thinks, but I feel reasonably confident when I say that not many people care about the tax moves by the President's father, particularly those that happened almost 70 years ago. The attorney general of NY is talking about an investigation, but since this all happened at least 20 years ago, the statute of limitations lapsed long ago.
If you put these together, you have to conclude that talk of a "blue wave" has been greatly exaggerated. Supposedly, dislike for Trump was going to bring down the Republicans. They weren't going to vote, but Democrats were surely going to turn out to "get" Trump. The problem is that about half the country like the job the President is doing. The groups that normally provide much of the support for Democrats also like Trump in historic numbers. It's a rule of thumb that if the GOP can get 20% or more of the black vote, the Democrats simply cannot win. Right now, Trump is at 35% with that group. Among Hispanics, support and opposition to Trump are basically tied. These are disaster figures for Democrats. The latest polls show this happening. On top of that, the Democrats and media are out of smears. They did their best to get Kavanaugh with phony claims of sexual abuse put forward by slimy lawyers who should have stayed under their rocks. All the Dems have at the moment are allegations of tax problems concerning the president's father who died over 20 years ago.
There's still a month until the election. That's a long time in politics. Right now, however, what we are witnessing is a Republican tide swamping the blue wave.
1. It now seems certain that Bret Kavanaugh will be confirmed as a Supreme Court Justice. With today's statements from senators Collins and Manchin, Kavanaugh has 51 votes declared in his favor. That's all he needs. This is a major victory for President Trump and the Republicans despite the most disgusting and dishonest bit of character assassination ever seen in the senate. Trump never backed down and even the Republicans in the senate stayed firm.
2. The latest Rasmussen poll gives President Trump an approval rating of 51%. This is his highest rating in a year and a half. It is also higher than where Obama at a comparable time in his first term. Despite a non-stop attack by the Democrats and the media, Trump's approval numbers keep rising.
3. That same Rasmussen poll gives Trump an approval by 35% of African Americans and just under half of Hispanics. These are extremely high numbers for a Republican president. Remember, we have just finished two years plus of attacks from the left that label Trump a racist who hates Hispanics etc.
4. Yesterday, the generic congressional poll results showed the Democrats with a 2% lead. This is just one poll, but a 2% lead in these polls normally translates into a Republican victory in both houses.
5. The latest attack by the media on the President comes in a very lengthy article in the NY Times that attacks Trump because of tax moves made by his father (who died 21 years ago). Some of the items that the Times raises date back to roughly 1950. Seriously, I'm not kidding. The Times worries about how Trump's father supposedly gave his son a salary starting in 1950. I don't pretend to know what everyone in America thinks, but I feel reasonably confident when I say that not many people care about the tax moves by the President's father, particularly those that happened almost 70 years ago. The attorney general of NY is talking about an investigation, but since this all happened at least 20 years ago, the statute of limitations lapsed long ago.
If you put these together, you have to conclude that talk of a "blue wave" has been greatly exaggerated. Supposedly, dislike for Trump was going to bring down the Republicans. They weren't going to vote, but Democrats were surely going to turn out to "get" Trump. The problem is that about half the country like the job the President is doing. The groups that normally provide much of the support for Democrats also like Trump in historic numbers. It's a rule of thumb that if the GOP can get 20% or more of the black vote, the Democrats simply cannot win. Right now, Trump is at 35% with that group. Among Hispanics, support and opposition to Trump are basically tied. These are disaster figures for Democrats. The latest polls show this happening. On top of that, the Democrats and media are out of smears. They did their best to get Kavanaugh with phony claims of sexual abuse put forward by slimy lawyers who should have stayed under their rocks. All the Dems have at the moment are allegations of tax problems concerning the president's father who died over 20 years ago.
There's still a month until the election. That's a long time in politics. Right now, however, what we are witnessing is a Republican tide swamping the blue wave.
Construction -- The NY Way
There's a small story in the media today about the "overhaul" of JFK Airport in New York City. It tells you all you really need to know about public construction in New York. Here are the highlights:
1. The estimated price tag is $13 billion. This is a 30% increase from the prior estimate that was released just nine months ago. The government said the increase was not due to inflation but to more investment (whatever that means.)
2. In this huge project, there is no money and no plans for the addition of one or two runways to handle more traffic. Projections, however, say that JFK will need more runways by 2025 in order to be able to handle expected traffic.
3. The overhaul of the facilities are expected to take 5 to 8 years. (In NY-government speak, that means a minimum of 10, and perhaps 15.)
Putting all this together, the government is going to spend at least 13 billion dollars (more likely over 20 billion) and get an airport that doesn't have sufficient runways to handle the traffic expected on the completion date of the project.
If this were a private project, the people in charge would be tossed out of their jobs for suggesting something like this. Since it's government in New York, however, it just goes on and on and on with a wasteful mess.
It doesn't have to be this way.
1. The estimated price tag is $13 billion. This is a 30% increase from the prior estimate that was released just nine months ago. The government said the increase was not due to inflation but to more investment (whatever that means.)
2. In this huge project, there is no money and no plans for the addition of one or two runways to handle more traffic. Projections, however, say that JFK will need more runways by 2025 in order to be able to handle expected traffic.
3. The overhaul of the facilities are expected to take 5 to 8 years. (In NY-government speak, that means a minimum of 10, and perhaps 15.)
Putting all this together, the government is going to spend at least 13 billion dollars (more likely over 20 billion) and get an airport that doesn't have sufficient runways to handle the traffic expected on the completion date of the project.
If this were a private project, the people in charge would be tossed out of their jobs for suggesting something like this. Since it's government in New York, however, it just goes on and on and on with a wasteful mess.
It doesn't have to be this way.
Thursday, October 4, 2018
What Has The Kavanaugh Fight Really Accomplished?
The last few weeks have been consumed with little more than the fight over confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Bret Kavanaugh. The confirmation process would have been completed two weeks ago, but at the last minute the Democrats leaked the letter from Dr. Ford and when that didn't derail Kavanaugh, they leaked Dr. Ford's name. Then we went through day after day of one Democrat after another telling us how not only did they believe dr. Ford, but that all America had to believe her because she was a victim. The Dems demanded and got (to their surprise) a hearing where dr. Ford told her tale and Judge Kavanaugh responded. Then the Dems demanded and got (to their surprise) an FBI investigation which has apparently turned up nothing new. Now we are going towards a vote on cloture tomorrow and on the nomination itself on Saturday. The Dems are apoplectic about the nomination moving towards a vote. They are claiming everything from the FBI curtailing the investigation to finding new evidence, to arguing that Kavanaugh is a drunk, to claiming that Kavanaugh lied, to you name it. The Dem support groups are even physically threatening and harassing GOP senators and claim much worse is coming if Kavanaugh is confirmed.
So if Kavanaugh is seated on the Supreme Court, what will the Democrats have gained from all this? In other words, what did the Kavanaugh fight accomplish for the Democrats? Here are just a few things that this fight has done:
1. The fight has soaked up all the new coverage of the last three weeks at a minimum. That means that Democrat senators running for re-election in red states have been unable to get their messages heard. Everything has been about Judge Kavanaugh, and that is a bad message for Democrats in these states. A senator like Heidi Heitkamp in ND has been forced to make a choice between voting to confirm Kavanaugh and thereby incensing her Democrat base or voting to reject Kavanaugh thereby angering the majority of ND voters who are Republicans. Heitkamp cannot claim to be non-partisan or independent of the DC Democrat leadership once she follows the demands of Schumer to vote against Kavanaugh. This same problem afflicts senators like Claire McCaskill in MO, Joe Donnelly in IN, Joe Manchin in WV, John Tester in MT, among others. Those running in open seats face the same problem. Phil Bredesen in TN has had his poll numbers tank while the Kavanaugh fight has persisted, for example.
2. The fight over Kavanaugh has managed to do something that the GOP has been unable to do by itself: it brought together many of the never-Trumpers and pro-Trumpers. There aren't many never-Trumpers among Republicans, but these people have been just as angered by the Demcrats' smear campaign as the other members of the GOP. Those never-Trumpers who considered not voting in 2018 have changed their minds.
3. Among Republican voters in general, the Kavanaugh fight has provided a major reason to get out and vote. The Democrats managed to show one more time what the country would be like were they to actually hold power. No sane person wants that.
4. The Kavanaugh fight has also managed to push some Democrat voters towards the Republicans. There are a lot of people who find it reprehensible that the Democrats could actually renege on the idea that a person is innocent until proven guilty. That position is condemned by a large majority of the American people. Then there are all those Democrats who didn't buy dr. Ford's story or who saw Kavanaugh and his family as unfairly attacked.
5. There surely must be some people who moved away from the GOP and towards the Dems during this confrontation. The problem that the Dems face, however, is that those who are most prone to move that way are people who would already have been in the Dem camp before all this began.
Recent polling has supported much of the foregoing. Senator Heitkamp has gone from being down 3-4% in her ND race to being down 10-12%. In TN, Republican Marsha Blackburn went from being slightly behind to being up by more than 5% in the latest poll. The numbers for the senate nominees of the Dems in MO, MT, IN and WV have all sunk over the last few weeks. Polls that measure enthusiasm show that the Republican voters are now just as enthusiastic about voting next month as are the Democrats. Before the latest spasm of Kavanaugh confrontation, the Dems were way ahead in those polls.
These are all political results for the Kavanaugh fight, but there are also some which are non-political.
1. Once Kavanaugh is on the court, he is unlikely to be coopted towards the liberal view as some past GOP nominees have been. I doubt he will soon forget just how brutal these folks have been towards him and his family.
2. If Trump gets another nomination to the Supreme Court, it is likely that he will nominate judge Barrett. As a woman, she is much less likely to face allegations of sexual harassment (although given the Dems, you never know.) Compared to Amy Barrett, Bret Kavanaugh is a liberal. This nomination would cement conservative control of the court for decades.
3. The chances of the two sides in Congress working together has declined even further. Republicans will no longer be waiting for that to happen, however. They've seen the Democrat attack/smear machine in action, and they don't like it. Getting Lindsay Graham to blow up the way he did is proof that most GOP members understand fully what they are facing. If the GOP retains control of the House, we are likely to see some important legislation on Trump's agenda (like the wall, etc) being pushed through. The Dems will have a choice to continue to obstruct, but if the Kavanaugh fight really hurts them politically, they are unlikely to try to duplicate that process moving forward.
So if Kavanaugh is seated on the Supreme Court, what will the Democrats have gained from all this? In other words, what did the Kavanaugh fight accomplish for the Democrats? Here are just a few things that this fight has done:
1. The fight has soaked up all the new coverage of the last three weeks at a minimum. That means that Democrat senators running for re-election in red states have been unable to get their messages heard. Everything has been about Judge Kavanaugh, and that is a bad message for Democrats in these states. A senator like Heidi Heitkamp in ND has been forced to make a choice between voting to confirm Kavanaugh and thereby incensing her Democrat base or voting to reject Kavanaugh thereby angering the majority of ND voters who are Republicans. Heitkamp cannot claim to be non-partisan or independent of the DC Democrat leadership once she follows the demands of Schumer to vote against Kavanaugh. This same problem afflicts senators like Claire McCaskill in MO, Joe Donnelly in IN, Joe Manchin in WV, John Tester in MT, among others. Those running in open seats face the same problem. Phil Bredesen in TN has had his poll numbers tank while the Kavanaugh fight has persisted, for example.
2. The fight over Kavanaugh has managed to do something that the GOP has been unable to do by itself: it brought together many of the never-Trumpers and pro-Trumpers. There aren't many never-Trumpers among Republicans, but these people have been just as angered by the Demcrats' smear campaign as the other members of the GOP. Those never-Trumpers who considered not voting in 2018 have changed their minds.
3. Among Republican voters in general, the Kavanaugh fight has provided a major reason to get out and vote. The Democrats managed to show one more time what the country would be like were they to actually hold power. No sane person wants that.
4. The Kavanaugh fight has also managed to push some Democrat voters towards the Republicans. There are a lot of people who find it reprehensible that the Democrats could actually renege on the idea that a person is innocent until proven guilty. That position is condemned by a large majority of the American people. Then there are all those Democrats who didn't buy dr. Ford's story or who saw Kavanaugh and his family as unfairly attacked.
5. There surely must be some people who moved away from the GOP and towards the Dems during this confrontation. The problem that the Dems face, however, is that those who are most prone to move that way are people who would already have been in the Dem camp before all this began.
Recent polling has supported much of the foregoing. Senator Heitkamp has gone from being down 3-4% in her ND race to being down 10-12%. In TN, Republican Marsha Blackburn went from being slightly behind to being up by more than 5% in the latest poll. The numbers for the senate nominees of the Dems in MO, MT, IN and WV have all sunk over the last few weeks. Polls that measure enthusiasm show that the Republican voters are now just as enthusiastic about voting next month as are the Democrats. Before the latest spasm of Kavanaugh confrontation, the Dems were way ahead in those polls.
These are all political results for the Kavanaugh fight, but there are also some which are non-political.
1. Once Kavanaugh is on the court, he is unlikely to be coopted towards the liberal view as some past GOP nominees have been. I doubt he will soon forget just how brutal these folks have been towards him and his family.
2. If Trump gets another nomination to the Supreme Court, it is likely that he will nominate judge Barrett. As a woman, she is much less likely to face allegations of sexual harassment (although given the Dems, you never know.) Compared to Amy Barrett, Bret Kavanaugh is a liberal. This nomination would cement conservative control of the court for decades.
3. The chances of the two sides in Congress working together has declined even further. Republicans will no longer be waiting for that to happen, however. They've seen the Democrat attack/smear machine in action, and they don't like it. Getting Lindsay Graham to blow up the way he did is proof that most GOP members understand fully what they are facing. If the GOP retains control of the House, we are likely to see some important legislation on Trump's agenda (like the wall, etc) being pushed through. The Dems will have a choice to continue to obstruct, but if the Kavanaugh fight really hurts them politically, they are unlikely to try to duplicate that process moving forward.
Jackson Cosko -- Dem Staffer Arrested for Doxxing GOP Senators
During the Kavanaugh hearings last week, the personal information of three GOP senators on the committee was posted on line. That's a federal crime. For security reasons, the home addresses and phone numbers (and some other information) of members of the House and Senate must be kept confidential.
The culprit has now been arrested. He's 27 year old Jackson Cosko who has worked as a staffer for senator Feinstein, representative Sheila Jackson Lee, senator Hassan of NH, and former senator Barbara Boxer of California. All of these women are Democrats.
So did he do this on his own or was he directed to do this by one of his bosses? So far the feds either don't know or aren't saying. As of now, no one else has been arrested.
It is believed that Cosko used a computer in an office different from the ones where he had worked to upload the information to the web. Assumedly, that's why the initial reports said that the upload came from the office of Maxine Waters. Again, we don't know if Waters or her staff knowingly allowed this crime to happen.
It may not sound like much, but the crime with which Cosko is charged could easily have resulted in a physical attack on one or more of the senators involved (or their families). I guess it is not enough for the Democrat crazies to denounce Republicans. Now they want physical violence directed against them as well.
If Cosko committed this criminal act, then I hope he gets sent to prison for at least a year. It might teach him to respect the law next time.
The culprit has now been arrested. He's 27 year old Jackson Cosko who has worked as a staffer for senator Feinstein, representative Sheila Jackson Lee, senator Hassan of NH, and former senator Barbara Boxer of California. All of these women are Democrats.
So did he do this on his own or was he directed to do this by one of his bosses? So far the feds either don't know or aren't saying. As of now, no one else has been arrested.
It is believed that Cosko used a computer in an office different from the ones where he had worked to upload the information to the web. Assumedly, that's why the initial reports said that the upload came from the office of Maxine Waters. Again, we don't know if Waters or her staff knowingly allowed this crime to happen.
It may not sound like much, but the crime with which Cosko is charged could easily have resulted in a physical attack on one or more of the senators involved (or their families). I guess it is not enough for the Democrat crazies to denounce Republicans. Now they want physical violence directed against them as well.
If Cosko committed this criminal act, then I hope he gets sent to prison for at least a year. It might teach him to respect the law next time.
The Kavanaugh Report
The FBI delivered the report regarding its further investigation of Bret Kavanaugh. Everything is moving forward towards a vote on cloture tomorrow and on the nomination on Saturday.
So what did this investigation accomplish? The arrival of the report has brought the usual responses from the usual senators. The review process for the report was the result of an agreement between senator Grassley the Republican chair of the Judiciary Committee and senator Feinstein the ranking Democrat on the committee. Unsurprisingly, my own state's junior senator Chris Murphy tweeted that the process agreed to between the leaders from the two parties was the final destruction of senate tradition and comity by the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell who, incidentally, was not involved in arranging the process. Murphy is never one to let the facts get in the way of a good attack.
Then there are other Democrat senators who, without seeing the report, denounce the FBI for not following all the leads and, instead, tailoring the report to curry favor with the President. It would be one thing to denounce what the FBI has done after seeing the report, but to denounce it beforehand is nothing but dishonest. It's amazing to see this (although it shouldn't be). For days, the Democrats kept demanding an FBI investigation. It had to happen, they told us. So now it has happened, and these same Democrats are denouncing the results before even seeing them.
One thing is certain: no matter what happens the Democrats will denounce any result that confirms Kavanaugh to SCOTUS. They have used a scorched earth plan to try to stop that confirmation. They have thrown decency and morality to the side and have used tricks and lies and games in their battle. Hopefully, the American people have seen this and have seen through it. I hope the Dems pay a big price for this in November. Time will tell.
So what did this investigation accomplish? The arrival of the report has brought the usual responses from the usual senators. The review process for the report was the result of an agreement between senator Grassley the Republican chair of the Judiciary Committee and senator Feinstein the ranking Democrat on the committee. Unsurprisingly, my own state's junior senator Chris Murphy tweeted that the process agreed to between the leaders from the two parties was the final destruction of senate tradition and comity by the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell who, incidentally, was not involved in arranging the process. Murphy is never one to let the facts get in the way of a good attack.
Then there are other Democrat senators who, without seeing the report, denounce the FBI for not following all the leads and, instead, tailoring the report to curry favor with the President. It would be one thing to denounce what the FBI has done after seeing the report, but to denounce it beforehand is nothing but dishonest. It's amazing to see this (although it shouldn't be). For days, the Democrats kept demanding an FBI investigation. It had to happen, they told us. So now it has happened, and these same Democrats are denouncing the results before even seeing them.
One thing is certain: no matter what happens the Democrats will denounce any result that confirms Kavanaugh to SCOTUS. They have used a scorched earth plan to try to stop that confirmation. They have thrown decency and morality to the side and have used tricks and lies and games in their battle. Hopefully, the American people have seen this and have seen through it. I hope the Dems pay a big price for this in November. Time will tell.
Wednesday, October 3, 2018
The Mockumentary From Last Night
Today's Dem/media talking point is that President Trump "mocked" Christine Ford last night. It's a total lie, but it seems to be all that the Dems have left.
Let's start with what the President said at his rally last night.
1. He said that Dr. Ford can't recall when the supposed attack took place. That's true, and pointing it out isn't mocking anyone.
2. Trump also said that Dr. Ford can't recall where the supposed attack took place. That's true, and pointing it out isn't mocking anyone.
3. The President also said that Dr. Ford can't recall in what neighborhood the supposed attack took place. That's true, and pointing it out isn't mocking anyone.
4. The President pointed out that none of the people that Dr. Ford puts at the part where the supposed attack took place support her version of what happened. In fact, none of these supposed witnesses recall anything like what Dr. Ford says happened. That's true, and pointing it out isn't mocking anyone.
So the President of the United States pointed out that the woman charging a Supreme Court nominee with sexual assault can't remember most of the details of what she says happened and all the other people supposedly there have no memory of this ever happening. That's called discussion of the evidence, not mocking. Look, it is possible that Dr. Ford is lying about what happened just to keep Bret Kavanaugh off the Court. It's also possible that Dr. Ford believes what she said but has a faulty memory when it comes to Kavanaugh. If it's "mocking" her to discuss the likelihood that what she says is correct, then there's no way to be fair to Kavanaugh. Except it's not mocking anyone to discuss what the evidence shows.
This latest attack by the Dems/media is just another low blow that needs to be ignored.
Let's start with what the President said at his rally last night.
1. He said that Dr. Ford can't recall when the supposed attack took place. That's true, and pointing it out isn't mocking anyone.
2. Trump also said that Dr. Ford can't recall where the supposed attack took place. That's true, and pointing it out isn't mocking anyone.
3. The President also said that Dr. Ford can't recall in what neighborhood the supposed attack took place. That's true, and pointing it out isn't mocking anyone.
4. The President pointed out that none of the people that Dr. Ford puts at the part where the supposed attack took place support her version of what happened. In fact, none of these supposed witnesses recall anything like what Dr. Ford says happened. That's true, and pointing it out isn't mocking anyone.
So the President of the United States pointed out that the woman charging a Supreme Court nominee with sexual assault can't remember most of the details of what she says happened and all the other people supposedly there have no memory of this ever happening. That's called discussion of the evidence, not mocking. Look, it is possible that Dr. Ford is lying about what happened just to keep Bret Kavanaugh off the Court. It's also possible that Dr. Ford believes what she said but has a faulty memory when it comes to Kavanaugh. If it's "mocking" her to discuss the likelihood that what she says is correct, then there's no way to be fair to Kavanaugh. Except it's not mocking anyone to discuss what the evidence shows.
This latest attack by the Dems/media is just another low blow that needs to be ignored.
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