The Fog of Egypt

I have now read countless articles about the rioting in Egypt and I am left with one major question: what exactly do the rioters want? In fact, do the rioters actually want anything in particular? In each article there is a description of the causes of the riots, although it seems to me that these causes are more the opinion of the author of the particular article rather than any information gleaned from the rioters. Other than the riots being anti-Mubarak, however, no one has put forth a clear explanation of what is desired.

I believe that this is more than the so-called fog of war. It seems to me that there is no clear leader or organization to these riots. That makes them doubly dangerous. If the rioters succeed in bringing down the government, the most organized groups in the country will then be those like the Moslem Brotherhood which are strongly Islamist. Egypt could be lost to the radicals on the backs of a revolt that had nothing to do with them. It would be like the October Revolution in Russia when the tiny Bolshevik Party took over through better organization after a popular uprising against the Tsar. That led to seventy years of Communist control.

The Obama Administration seems on the surface to be treating the problems in Egypt the same way that the Carter Administration treated the uprising against the Shah in Iran thirty years ago. We are hearing calls for "reforms" etc. from the White House. Carter actually promoted the Iranian takeover by the ayatollahs, albeit unintentionally. Let's hope Obama does not do the same in Egypt.

The stakes here are sky high. Were Egypt suddenly to become a radical Islamic center, the whole balance of power in the region would shift strongly against US interests. Indeed, the world would pay a steep price for such an event.