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Monday, February 16, 2015

The Logic of ISIS

At the start of the year, the terrorists of ISIS were in control of large portions of Iraq and Syria.  They were opposed by the Shiite forces in Syria (the Assad military, Hezbollah and some Iranian troops), by the other Sunni rebels in Syria (the al Qaeda led groups and the other small non-terrorist factions), by the Kurds in both Syria and Iraq, by Iraqi army forces supplemented by Shiite militias and Iranian troops, and by the air power of the USA and its few allies.  The reality of that situation was that there were no ground forces who were actually confronting ISIS except for the Kurds.  The air campaign against ISIS was desultory at best.  There was no strong leadership among ISIS's opponents; certainly Washington and, more particularly, president Obama seemed to have lost interest in the fight.

Over the last six weeks, ISIS has managed to change that reality.  First, it burned a Jordanian pilot alive and broadcast the video on the internet.  This so enraged the people of Jordan, that the kingdom has engaged its forces against ISIS on a much broader front.  The murder of the pilot in so horrible a fashion also re-energized the UAE and got it to commit its air power back into the battle.  Next, ISIS mounted an attack on an Iraqi airbase housing 300 US marines who were training Iraqi troops.  The attack failed, but it forced Washington to notice the situation.  In the next few days, just under 5000 fresh US troops are to arrive in Kuwait.  These troops are now on hand for offensive moves against ISIS or for a full defense of the airbase that was previously attacked should that prove necessary.  Of course, any combat deployment of these troops would require an order from Obama, so their engagement remains unlikely, but, at least, they are in place to be used if needed.  Yesterday, ISIS released a video of its people executing just under two dozen Egyptian Christians.  The Coptic Christians in Egypt are a small part of the population which is overwhelmingly Sunni Moslem (like ISIS).  Nevertheless, the senseless slaughter of all of these Egyptians for no reason other than their religion has enraged many in Egypt.  In fact, it may be that the ISIS attack on the Copts will do more to unite Egypt than any event in recent history.  The government of Egypt has already launched to major air attacks on ISIS positions in Libya (where the executions took place.)  Were Egypt to begin to use its military power against ISIS, it would provide more than enough force to crush the terrorists in Libya. 

One has to wonder what logic has led ISIS to take all these actions.  By killing innocents and attacking the wrong targets, ISIS has brought to life opponents who previously were prepared to sit on the sidelines.  The surge of action may decay quickly, but that may not be the outcome.  A sustained attack on ISIS by Egypt, Jordan and some Arab allies ought to bring the terrorists to their knees quickly, especially with the help of US air power. 

It would be nice to think that our government is actively working to solidify the anti-ISIS coalition.  We all know the truth, however; Obama is paying scant attention to the problem.  Nevertheless, the actions of ISIS have been completely crazy, and the terrorists may have managed to do something that Washington did not even try:  to create and unite an anti-ISIS coalition.




 

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