For over three years, the story out of Syria has been one of death and destruction. At last estimate, the number of dead in the Syrian fighting is approaching 300,000 people. The number of refugees is something like twenty times that number. Fighting began when there were street protests against the Assad regime during the so called Arab Spring. The response from Assad was to send snipers to the demonstrations to shoot random people in the marches. Surprisingly, the protesters did not give up. Instead, the killing by the Assad forces got worse and eventually the protesters fought back. The result was an uprising by mostly Sunni Syrians against the ruling Alawaite Baathist forces loyal to Assad. In the early days, the rebels were mostly moderate and there were few foreign jihadists or other fighters in the mix. Assad could have been ousted had there been international support for the rebellion, but world figures like president Obama stayed away from the entire matter. Obama said that Assad should go, but then did absolutely nothing to help hasten that event. The only major outside help for either side came from Iran and its client Hezbollah which rushed aid to Assad. Over the next two years, the Assad forces held on and then moved in on the rebels. Meanwhile, there was international help for the rebels, but it came mainly from jihadi terror groups. The local affiliate of al Qaeda gained strength while the more moderate rebels kept losing strength. Today, the opposition to Assad (other than ISIS) is mainly controlled by al Qaeda. Then came ISIS. The world was horrified by the brutality of ISIS even though these terrorist monsters did much less killing than the Iranian backed Assed regime. For example, the Assad forces have killed about ten thousand people with chemical weapons. That is much worse than ISIS beheading one or two prisoners, but there was no video to show (with one exception).
The rise of ISIS did have one major effect in Syria that few have discussed. When ISIS took the northwestern part of Iraq and much of northeastern Syria, it cut off the land route for Iran's resupply of the Assad forces. Over time, this has steadily weakened the Assad forces. In the last month, Assad has lost control of the city of Idlib and of three or four important provincial towns. Stories are now appearing that the Assad forces are near collapse. It is hard to know if this is true, but it certainly seems possible.
So what would happen if the Assad regime collapses? For one thing, the Sunnis who comprise over 75% of the Syrian people would be back in control of the government for the first time in about 40 years. Iran would lose its main client state in the Arab world. Russia would lose its naval base at Tartarus on the Mediterranean. Hezbollah would be cut off from all overland resupply by Iran. All those are good things. On the negative side, the defeat of the Assad forces could unleash a slaughter of the Alawaites (the local Shiite sect) that would make much of what has happened to date look like a picnic. Imagine ISIS and al Qaeda unleashed on the Shiite "infidels" who need to be purged. We could see millions dead. Then there is the issue whether or not al Qaeda and ISIS will work together or if there will just be another battle between the two once the Assad forces are vanquished. No one knows how that one will play out. There is also the problem that a terrorist state presents to Israel. Having a state run by al Qaeda or ISIS on its borders is unacceptable to the Israelis for obvious reasons.
The sad thing about all this is that it could easily have been prevented had Obama just acted when the mess began. Sometimes being a leader means having to make hard choices. Obama thinks all he needs to do is make a speech. We will all watch the results of that feckless policy play out in Syria and the costs are almost too horrible to consider.
The rise of ISIS did have one major effect in Syria that few have discussed. When ISIS took the northwestern part of Iraq and much of northeastern Syria, it cut off the land route for Iran's resupply of the Assad forces. Over time, this has steadily weakened the Assad forces. In the last month, Assad has lost control of the city of Idlib and of three or four important provincial towns. Stories are now appearing that the Assad forces are near collapse. It is hard to know if this is true, but it certainly seems possible.
So what would happen if the Assad regime collapses? For one thing, the Sunnis who comprise over 75% of the Syrian people would be back in control of the government for the first time in about 40 years. Iran would lose its main client state in the Arab world. Russia would lose its naval base at Tartarus on the Mediterranean. Hezbollah would be cut off from all overland resupply by Iran. All those are good things. On the negative side, the defeat of the Assad forces could unleash a slaughter of the Alawaites (the local Shiite sect) that would make much of what has happened to date look like a picnic. Imagine ISIS and al Qaeda unleashed on the Shiite "infidels" who need to be purged. We could see millions dead. Then there is the issue whether or not al Qaeda and ISIS will work together or if there will just be another battle between the two once the Assad forces are vanquished. No one knows how that one will play out. There is also the problem that a terrorist state presents to Israel. Having a state run by al Qaeda or ISIS on its borders is unacceptable to the Israelis for obvious reasons.
The sad thing about all this is that it could easily have been prevented had Obama just acted when the mess began. Sometimes being a leader means having to make hard choices. Obama thinks all he needs to do is make a speech. We will all watch the results of that feckless policy play out in Syria and the costs are almost too horrible to consider.
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