The UN will soon report its findings on whether or not the Assad regime in Syria used chemical weapons to attack the Sunni rebels holding much of Aleppo. The biggest loser from the report will likely be president Obama; he may actually be forced to do make a decision.
Let's back up a bit to explain this.
1. Years ago, Obama announced that Assad had to go. Then he did nothing, and Assad is still there running the show in Damascus.
2. Roughly four years ago, Obama announced that the used of chemical weapons in Syria is a "red line" for the USA; we would not tolerate such use according to Obama.
3. Two years ago, Assad started making heavy use of chemical weapons. After fifteen documented chemical attacks by the Assad forces, a large number of countries had announced opposition to such attacks and called for action to stop them. Obama's response, however, was that there was no clear evidence yet that chemical weapons had been used. Obama tried his best to ignore reality.
4. Then there was a major chemical attack by the Assad forces that killed well over 1000 people. The rebels were able to get video disseminated of people dying from the gas. The horrible images made it past the mainstream media protectors of Obama and were seen by millions of Americans. Obama could no longer deny reality.
5. Obama followed the chemical attack with a major moment of dithering. He would attack the Syrian weapons depots. No, he wouldn't attack, but he would take action against Syria. No, he would attack but only with allies. No, the USA would take action alone if it had to. Finally, Obama made his final position clear: he would ask Congress to debate the issue and decide if it would authorize an attack on Syria. Obama, in other words, found a way to do nothing and to pass the buck.
6. While Congress began to consider the issue, most of the senators and congressmen said that Obama already had the necessary authority to act. They never actually got to vote on the issue, however. Instead, the Russians jumped on something that John Kerry said and offered Obama a way out of his mess. Russia brokered a deal in which Assad agreed to get rid of "all" of his chemical weapons in exchange for the USA agreeing to do nothing to undermine his rule in Syria. Obama jumped on the offer. Assad turned over some of his weapons for disposal, but the threat of American action against Assad was removed. It was a major victory for the Russians and Assad. Obama just looked weak.
7. That brings us to this year. In the last three months, there have been a large number of reports of the Assad forces using chlorine gas against various rebel forces. The latest and one of the largest attacks was not long ago in Aleppo. It hit civilians, not soldiers. Once again, pictures of the victims made their way onto the internet and into the media. Obama did nothing, but (much to his chagrin) the UN announced that it would investigate.
8. Word is that within the next week the UN will announce its findings that the attack, indeed, was one made with chlorine gas. Simply put, this is proof that once again Assad is using chemical weapons against his opponents. If the official UN agency charged with dealing with chemical weapons announces that Assad has once again gone back to using those weapons, Obama will not be able to just avoid the subject.
So what will Obama do? He never removed the supposed red line that he announced years ago. In fact, he agreed to a deal in which Syrian forces were to give up all their chemical weapons, a deal which has clearly been violated. Will American forces suddenly hit the Assad troops?
Obama has a big problem. Unlike a few years back, there are now Russian troops in Syria supporting the Assad forces. There are also Iranian forces in Syria supporting Assad. Any strike on the Assad regime could lead to a confrontation with Russia or Iran. Just imagine Obama authorizing an attack and Iran announcing that because of that, it was pulling out of the nuclear agreement. After all, the Iranians already got what they wanted. Sanctions have been lifted and they already got the $150 billion dollars that had been seized. Iran has only obligations moving forward but no benefits. On the other hand, if Obama ignores the UN report on chemical weapons being used, he will look even weaker than now (if such a thing is even possible.) Whatever is left of the American position in the Middle East will crumble to dust.
The sad thing about all this is that the mess is all of Obama's own creation. When Obama took office, the US position in the Middle East was extremely strong. Obama has managed to foster the creation of ISIS, to allow Iran to gain hegemony, to alienate America's friends, to push our allies into close cooperation with Russia, to allow the Russians to get their forces into the Middle East for the first time since the 1970s and to put Americans and American interests in that region into great danger. There are no areas in which Obama has a stellar record. Nevertheless, without a doubt, the worst part of Obama's record is the way in which he has dealt with the Middle East.
Let's back up a bit to explain this.
1. Years ago, Obama announced that Assad had to go. Then he did nothing, and Assad is still there running the show in Damascus.
2. Roughly four years ago, Obama announced that the used of chemical weapons in Syria is a "red line" for the USA; we would not tolerate such use according to Obama.
3. Two years ago, Assad started making heavy use of chemical weapons. After fifteen documented chemical attacks by the Assad forces, a large number of countries had announced opposition to such attacks and called for action to stop them. Obama's response, however, was that there was no clear evidence yet that chemical weapons had been used. Obama tried his best to ignore reality.
4. Then there was a major chemical attack by the Assad forces that killed well over 1000 people. The rebels were able to get video disseminated of people dying from the gas. The horrible images made it past the mainstream media protectors of Obama and were seen by millions of Americans. Obama could no longer deny reality.
5. Obama followed the chemical attack with a major moment of dithering. He would attack the Syrian weapons depots. No, he wouldn't attack, but he would take action against Syria. No, he would attack but only with allies. No, the USA would take action alone if it had to. Finally, Obama made his final position clear: he would ask Congress to debate the issue and decide if it would authorize an attack on Syria. Obama, in other words, found a way to do nothing and to pass the buck.
6. While Congress began to consider the issue, most of the senators and congressmen said that Obama already had the necessary authority to act. They never actually got to vote on the issue, however. Instead, the Russians jumped on something that John Kerry said and offered Obama a way out of his mess. Russia brokered a deal in which Assad agreed to get rid of "all" of his chemical weapons in exchange for the USA agreeing to do nothing to undermine his rule in Syria. Obama jumped on the offer. Assad turned over some of his weapons for disposal, but the threat of American action against Assad was removed. It was a major victory for the Russians and Assad. Obama just looked weak.
7. That brings us to this year. In the last three months, there have been a large number of reports of the Assad forces using chlorine gas against various rebel forces. The latest and one of the largest attacks was not long ago in Aleppo. It hit civilians, not soldiers. Once again, pictures of the victims made their way onto the internet and into the media. Obama did nothing, but (much to his chagrin) the UN announced that it would investigate.
8. Word is that within the next week the UN will announce its findings that the attack, indeed, was one made with chlorine gas. Simply put, this is proof that once again Assad is using chemical weapons against his opponents. If the official UN agency charged with dealing with chemical weapons announces that Assad has once again gone back to using those weapons, Obama will not be able to just avoid the subject.
So what will Obama do? He never removed the supposed red line that he announced years ago. In fact, he agreed to a deal in which Syrian forces were to give up all their chemical weapons, a deal which has clearly been violated. Will American forces suddenly hit the Assad troops?
Obama has a big problem. Unlike a few years back, there are now Russian troops in Syria supporting the Assad forces. There are also Iranian forces in Syria supporting Assad. Any strike on the Assad regime could lead to a confrontation with Russia or Iran. Just imagine Obama authorizing an attack and Iran announcing that because of that, it was pulling out of the nuclear agreement. After all, the Iranians already got what they wanted. Sanctions have been lifted and they already got the $150 billion dollars that had been seized. Iran has only obligations moving forward but no benefits. On the other hand, if Obama ignores the UN report on chemical weapons being used, he will look even weaker than now (if such a thing is even possible.) Whatever is left of the American position in the Middle East will crumble to dust.
The sad thing about all this is that the mess is all of Obama's own creation. When Obama took office, the US position in the Middle East was extremely strong. Obama has managed to foster the creation of ISIS, to allow Iran to gain hegemony, to alienate America's friends, to push our allies into close cooperation with Russia, to allow the Russians to get their forces into the Middle East for the first time since the 1970s and to put Americans and American interests in that region into great danger. There are no areas in which Obama has a stellar record. Nevertheless, without a doubt, the worst part of Obama's record is the way in which he has dealt with the Middle East.
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