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Sunday, April 15, 2018

So What Does This Mean?

The Russian ambassador to the USA tweeted that there will be "consequences" to the attack by the USA, UK and France on the chemical weapons facilities in Syria.  In a second tweet, the same ambassador said that a "pre-designed scenario" was underway in response to the attack on the chemical weapons facilities.

So what does this mean?  Is Russia about to attack somewhere in response to the allied action?  Will there be an uptick in attacks on US positions in Syria?  Will there be attacks elsewhere?  Is this just another bit of propaganda put out there by Vladimir Putin and the Russians?

Let's think about it a bit together.  First, in the run up to the allied attack, the Russians announced that they had a highly effective anti-missile defense in Syria that would take down any missiles launched in attack of the Syrian positions.  The Russians also announced that they would not only shoot down attacking aircraft but would also retaliate against the sites from which those aircraft were launched.  When the attack came, the Russians did nothing.  Oh, they turned on their anti-missile systems, but they never even launched one attempt to shoot down the cruise missiles or planes.  Russia was all bark and no bite.  The Russians did, however, announce that they had shot down more than 70 missiles launched against the Syrian sites.  That would be roughly two thirds of the missiles launched by the allied forces.  It was, however, just a blatant lie. 

Now we are getting threats on Twitter of consequences and pre-designed scenarios.  Are these just more blatant lies?  The most likely answer is yes.  Remember, these threats are being issued by the Russian ambassador to the USA.  That's hardly a threat issued by Vladimir Putin or even the Russian foreign minister.  If anyone questions how such BS gets issued by the Russians, they can always say that the ambassador is far from the corridors of power and he got his facts confused.

Why would Moscow make such phony threats?  Surely, they know that the governments of the USA, UK and France do not credit them as real, especially after all the lies in the run up to the attack.  The UK, for example, was charged by Russia with setting up and carrying out the chemical weapons attack that led to this present confrontation.  It has never been clear why the UK would gas a town in Syria, but that didn't stop Moscow from making the charge.  And, of course, the media runs with the Russian charges.  You can't blame Putin for expecting that to happen.  He has seen the way that much of the mainstream media in the USA ran with the phony Russia-Trump campaign collusion story for the last year.  Millions of people in the USA actually believe those lies despite the complete absence still of any evidence supporting that charge.  Putin most likely expects that the media will attack Trump and push the Russian lies of a "pre-designed scenario".

The reality, however, is that Russia is weak compared to any one of the three countries that launched the attack in Syria.  Compared to the three of them combined, however, Russia is hardly a threat.  The Kremlin has nuclear weapons, and that cannot be ignored.  Unless, however, Putin wants to destroy the world over Assad's barbaric use of chemical weapons, there's not much of another meaningful threat from the Russians.

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