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Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Things Get Worse Again in Syria

Writing the headline that things have gotten worse in Syria is something that I have often done.  Every time one would think that we have hit the depths of disaster in Syria, things just keep getting worse.  Today, the development is the growing confrontation between Turkey and Russia in the skies in the region.  A few days ago, two Russian fighter jets flew into Turkish airspace and the Turks demanded that they leave.  The Russians said the flights had been in error.  Then yesterday, Russian jets and anti-aircraft missile batteries on the ground locked their radars onto Turkish planes that were inside Turkey but near the Syrian border.  Turkey protested this to the Russian ambassador, but today, the Russians did it again.  Turkish planes were in the targeting radars of both Russian jets and anti-aircraft missiles for roughly five minutes.  To be clear, this means that the Russians had their weapons locked in on the Turkish planes even though the Turks were over their own territory.  Turkey is again protesting.

This behavior by the Russians is both provocative in dangerous.  No doubt, if president Obama comments on it at all, he will talk about the need for "deconfliction" or some other sort of gobbledegook.  It won't be enough.  A clearer response is needed.  Turkey is a member of NATO.  Russia cannot be allowed to threaten the Turks like this without some sort of response.  Right now, there are American jets flying out of Incirlik air base in Turkey right near the site of these Russian provocations.  American jets ought to start flying patrols over Turkey and northern Syria (where ISIS is located) to make clear to the Russians and the Turks that the Russian behavior could have extremely serious consequences.  There is no need for any shots to be fired; Putin will get the message.  More talking (which will undoubtedly be Obama's preference) just further reinforces the perception in Moscow and around the world of American weakness.




 

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