Fear is winning

There is a disaster in Japan. The combination of a major earthquake and a tsunami have left a nuclear power plant with three reactors without power to keep the cooling aparatus working, so there is the prospect of a possible meltdown. No one outside of the Japanese government knows for sure what is happening since there has been an evacuation of the area. There have been explosions at the plants. There has also been an increase in radiation detected in certain areas near the plant. It seems that the radiation levels are still quite low, however.

No one could argue that the situation in Japan is good; simply put, it is a major disaster. But fear arising from the disaster is winning around the world. In Germany, the government just ordered the shutdown of about 40% of that country's nuclear power plants, plants that have operated safely for over 30 years. There is no threat of earthquakes in Germany. Nor is there the likelihood of tsunami damage. For a tsunami to inundate Germany, it would have to be the result of an event that would probably end all life on earth like a major meteor impact in the Atlantic. so what are the Germans running from? A possible avalanche? Tornadoes? The answer is public opinion. In other words, the fears of the public are being allowed to control the actions of those who should know better.

Will this fear also win in America? It certainly will triumph in one arena; there are unlikely to be any new nuclear plants in the USA in the foreseeable future. That, however, is no surprise. There have been no new plants built since Three Mile Island had its disaster in the 1970's. While there were noises that this might change, one has to be an incurable optimist to believe that nuclear plants would actually have been built. the real fight is going to be on whether or not our current plants need to be shut down. I am sure that Indian Point north of New York City will once again become a target. There are simply too many pandering pols in New York state to let a target that rich get away.

I hope that the environmentalists remember two things: First, to the extent we have extra capacity in our systems, that capacity runs on coal. In other words, clean and non-polluting nuclear plants will be replaced by dirty, pollution spewing coal plants. Now not all coal plants are dirty, but the excess capacity out there has not been brought up to the cleanest operational levels. That, in fact, is why it is off line. Second, there is not enough excess capacity to keep electricity production at the levels required to run the country. A nuclear shutdown would mean rolling blackouts, a new recession/depression and a great amount of pain for everyone. Particularly since there is no reason to believe that any of the nuclear plants are unsafe, there is no reason to inflict such pain on the country.

Of course, we are talking about fear here, not rational action. Let's hope for an adult response from our president. Obama needs to explain to the folks why there is no danger.