Never ending Humor -- Jonathan Chait and the electoral math

In an unintentionally funny piece today in the New Republic, Jonathan Chait discusses why Ohio is not needed for the Obama re-election effort since the president can base his efforts instead on Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado (together with the states that went for the Democrats in the last three elections.) To me, this discussion has about as much relevance as would a discussion at the Pentagon about horse cavalry tactics. Chait is clearly fighting the last war.

Let's put this in perspective. The states that gave Obama his margin in 2008 have swung hard towards the GOP and away from the Democrats. These include Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania,Indiana Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Michigan and New Hampshire. Each of these states now has a Republican governor and legislature. Together, they controlled a total of 138 electoral votes in 2008. If one adds the six electoral votes that will switch to the GOP due to redistricting following the 2010 census, that is a swing of 146 votes, or more than half the number need to win the presidency. Indeed, if these states get added to McCain's 173 electoral votes, the total of 319 means that Obama loses. Indeed, even if Obama wins one or two of these states the GOP would still win.

Of course, this assumes that Obama can still win in Chris Christie's new Jersey as well as in Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, something that is far from clear.

The truth is that the earthquake that put Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin firmly into the GOP camp in 2010 is more than enough to deny re-election to Obama. Chait and the Democrats can continue to fight the old battles all they like. If they choose not to fight on the new issues of runaway spending, dealing with unemployment and Obamacare, the campaign may be much like the one in 2010: the Democrats will have no relevant issues and nothing to say.

It is truly funny to see someone as political as Chait acting so oblivious to political reality. Look, I do not know what the electorate will think in 2012. It is just too far away to know. One thing is certain, however, the paradigm that governed during the Bush years is gone.