What Do The Early Voting Numbers Mean

 People across the country have been voting for weeks now.  Many voted by mail and others did in person early voting.  What does all this activity indicate for the election?  It's far from dispositive, but there are certain clear trends that can be seen.

1.  Minority voting is down as a percentage of total voting.  In other words, the people voting early are whiter than the electorate that cast votes in 2016 or the mid terms in 2018.  Black participation hit a high in 2012 with Obama and then fell when Trump beat Hillary four years later.  Now, with Biden in the race (excuse me, the slow walk), African Americans are about 1.5% lower percentage of the electorate than last time.

So what does this mean?  If the percentage of blacks in the electorate actually falls by 1.5% after election day, it's a disaster for the Democrats.  Remember Hillary took 92% of all black votes four years ago.  Switching 1.5% of black votes for white votes means that Biden is losing something like 0.8% of the votes in the race.  There were quite a few states in 2016 that were decided by margins lower than 0.8%.  Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania come to mind.  And if the polls are correct and Ptesident Trump gets about 5% more of the black vote in 2020 than he did last time, that 0.8% goes up to about 1.5%.

2/  The 18-24 year old segment of the electorate is also not turning in ballots to the same extent proportionally as it did in 2016.  Here, the drop is much greater than it is among blacks.  The theory is that without college events to get these kids to the polls (cancelled due to COVID), this group may underperform by about 25% compared to 2016.  There's also the lack of any enthusiasm among the young for the doddering old man that Biden is.

3.  Another noticeable difference in the early electorate from last time is that among whites, the vote by those without college degrees is a much smaller percentage while those with less than a college degree are way up in participation.  This data only comes from a few states that release this information.  Note, however, that this has been the case in every state that has released info of this sort.  Keep in mind also that Trump does best among white voters without a college degree, and they are the ones who are turning out in droves during early voting.

4.  In many important states, Republican voters are beating their turnout rates of 4 years ago by margins greater than the Democrats.  Since Democrats normally do better in early voting than the GOP, figures like those in the MidWest where Republicans are actually outpolling the Dems are shocking.

Put this together and it still doesn't mean anything conclusive.  After all, the polls say Biden is ahead.  Of course, Biden will only win if his supporters actually bother to vote.  At least in the early voting, it seems that the Trump voters are streaming to the polls while many of Biden's core groups are not.

Are the polls correct?  Or are these early voting indicators correct?  One is composed from questions asked blindly on a phone while the other are actual voting tablulations.  Right now, it looks to me like the pollsters got it all wrong again.

Early Voting Or How To Lie In Style

 I just read an article from NBC which exclaims how voting by those under 30 is up compared to the numbers who had voted at this time four years ago.  That's nonsense and NBC knows it.  They can't be that stupid.  Here's the facts:  The number of people voting early by mail or in person is way, way up compared to 2016.  While the absolute number of young people voting is more than it was at this point in 2016, the percentage of total votes by young people is way down.  The biggest increase in early voting is among seniors.  In states that give out this information, seniors are voting at more than three times the number that had voted at this point in 2016.  The youth vote is up by about 15%.  What that means is one of two things:  either youths are all planning to vote in person on election day, or the level of voting by young people is going to be way down in 2020.  Normally, young people are among the biggest users of early voting, so you take your pick as to what you think is happening.

And while we are talking about early voting, I saw an article today about how voters in Manhattan had stood in line for up to four hours to vote in person today.a  Someone is going to have to explain why it is dangerous to vote in person on election day, but not early.  

Key voting Statistics

 

We've all seen the polls that show Biden in the lead as well as the analyses that give Biden about a 90% chance of victory.  
But here's the problem:  they don't line up with the actual facts.

1.  The enthusiasm for President Trump is through the roof.  He gets 15000 ore 20000 at his rallies.  Biden gets six or seven people.  Recently, Biden and Harris held a joint rally and no one showed up other than the media.  President Obama campaigned for Biden yesterday in PA.  His crowd was less than 50.

2.  Early voting is supposed to be controlled by the Dems but they are actually losing in MI and WI.  In Florida, the GOP is ahead by over 200,000 in early voting in person.  These are staggeringly poor numbers for the Dems.

3.  Voting groups like minorities and college students that are key parts of the Dem coalition are just not turning out at the usual rate.  Maybe they will show on election day, but that seems unlikely.

4.  Then there's the question of the shy Trump voters.  How many lied to pollsters rather than admitting that they support 'Trump,  And how many Trump voters are just lying to pollsters for fun?

Simply put, trump will win.

Is Biden Done?

 Today the Biden officialcampaign spoksperson admitted that no one is claiming the Hunter Biden emails are fake. The FBI said that after review those emails, texts and pictures on Hunter’s laptop were not part of a Russian disinformation campaign. Those are killer admissions

Think what it means

1. Joe Biden helped Hunter gat 1.5 billion from China to manage. 

.  Joe used his influence and US government funds to stop an investigation into a Ukrainian company where Hunter was getting a million a year as a director

3. Hunter was holding 10% of these ventures for Joe

4.  Joe Biden used his position as VP to get millions from China and Ukraine for himself. That’s a federal crime

5.  Joe Biden has lied repeatedly by saying he knew nothing about this

6.  Hunter is a pervert and Joe knew all about it

Joe Biden is not fit to be president

Can you help?

 Here’ s a Facebook post my daughter just put on line:  if you can help that would be great  if not then please share this with others  Someone might be able to help  

Hi Everyone, my name is Julia Aronson. I am reaching out to you all with the hope that you can help me share this news far and wide. I am 30 years old, and live right outside of Denver in Castle Rock, Colorado.  I just learned that I need a kidney transplant, and that a living donor is my best chance for survival. As you may know, I have had systemic lupus since 2004, was diagnosed with lupus nephritis in 2017 and it is destroying my kidneys. I am currently undergoing dialysis three times a week leaving me feeling crummy, weak, and exhausted without motivation to do much.  I want to be healthy again, I am young and hope to have a long life ahead of me!! I want to enjoy working with and riding my horses, playing with my dog, and hope to travel the world someday. I look forward to the day that I’m not tired, unwell and can live my life to the fullest. A kidney from a living donor can save my life. If you would consider being my living donor, please contact Julia at Julesneedsakidney@gmail.com and visit https://pslmc.com/specialties/kidney-transplant  for more information about becoming a donor and other ways to help. Donation costs are covered by my insurance, and the information you share will be kept confidential with the transplant team. My blood type is B+, but anyone can donate through a process called paired donation. Please Like and Share this post on your own page, then many more people can hear my story. Thank you so much my friends! s a Facebook post my daughter just put on line. 

A brief note

 I’ve been moving and also visiting my daughter in Colorado for a few weeks. As the election gets close I would normally expect to write many posts. Not this year though—too much is happening

Since we’re just a month til voting ends (and the 2024 campaign begins ugh), here is my prediction. President Trump will be re-elected with a larger margin in the Electoral College than 2016. The polls will be off due to turnout, enthusiasm and distorted sampling