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Monday, January 11, 2021

The Polls Are A Joke

 In the 2020 election, the polls were all wrong.  Even on election night, the networks got it all wrong.  The Biden runaway victory predicted by the polls turned into a very close contest.  States like PA, MI, AZ, NV and GA that showed clear leads for Biden or up to 8% came in with margins of less than 1% for the most part.  When the polls closed in most states, some networks proclaimed that based upon their exit polls, the Dems had gained at least 5 and maybe as many as 15 seats in the House.  Actually, the GOP picked up something like 13 seats.

Given the poor performance of the pollsters, one would think that they would take more care now to get it right.  But they don't.  Today, we saw two polls concerning the public's view of President Trump's job performance.  Both polls were taken after the mess at the Capitol last week.  Rasmussen found the public disapproving of Trump's performance by a margin of 3%.  Quinipiac, however, found that the margin of disapproval was 24%.  That's impossible.  It is not a sampling error.  It has to be intentional.  The likelihood of these being two good faith polls with such different results is less than one chancer in ten billion.  One side or the other is rigging the results.

Throughout the last two years, Quinipiac has always shown results more favorable to the Dems by about 5-7 percentage points.  Even that margin does not account for the latest differential.

Realistically, the polls need to be ignored.  They are BS pushing BS results.


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