The Decision in Virginia

The decision issued today by a federal judge in the suit brought by Virginia against the federal government to have Obamacare declared unconstitutional is remarkably straightforward. Simply put, the court determines that Congress does not have the power under the Commerce Clause of the constitution to regulate a person's choice not to engage in interstate commerce. As a result, the individual mandate that requires each person to procure health insurance is unconstitutional. The Court also says that the provision is not a tax; specifically, it relies most heavily on the words used by Congress in calling this a penalty and not a tax. Finally, the court says that only the individual mandate and those provisions that depend on the existence of the mandate will fall. the entire bill is not unconstitutional.

So what does this mean?

First, there will be an appeal and nothing really matters until the Supreme Court rules.

Second, if the individual mandate falls, the entire structure of Obamacare also falls. The basic point of the plan was that insurance companies would be barred from looking at pre-existing conditions or for charging most differential premiums, but that because the individual mandate would greatly expand the size of the market, the companies could survive. It will be interesting to see what gets left if the individual mandate is ultimately determined to be unconstitutional.

Third, this may well be the beginning of the end for Obamacare. For instance, this ruling may give Congress the reason to delay implementation of the bill. After all, if the entire structure is going to collapse, there is no point in preparing to implement it.

In any event, today's ruling is a victory for the Constitution. Let's hope it holds up on appeal.