When the new congress takes office in January, there is going to be a very intereting dynamic at work in the Senate. The House will be firmly in the control of the GOP, and -- if early indications are correct -- it will be voting repeatedly for spending cuts. The question is whether or not the senate will go along with those cuts. The Democrats will control that body 53-47 (counting the nominal independents Lieberman and Sanders as Democrats). The question then is where would the GOP find the votes in the Senate to get House measures passed.
The answer is quite clear; the pressure point in the senate consistes of those senators up for re-election in 2012. Right now, there are 23 Democrats and 10 Republicans who will face voters that year. Of these, those Democrats most at risk are Jim Webb of Virginia, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Tester of Montana, Stabenow of Michigan, Nelson of Nebraska, Nelson of Florida, McCaskill of Missouri, Kohl of Wisconsin, Goodwin of West Virginia, Conrad of North Dakota, and Brown of Ohio. the only Republican who seems to have the potential for trouble at the moment is Brown of Massachusetts. Joe Lieberman in Connecticut also looks shaky for re-election at the moment. So that makes 12 potential senate Democrat votes for the GOP policies on spending. Of course, it is unlikely that all of these senators will go along with the GOP, but it will only take four to pass spending cuts if the GOP can stay together in these battles. Some of these senators may well be forced by their electorates to go along in this effort as well.
By the way, while it is way too early to assess the 2012 races, it is worth noting that if the GOP can pick up even half of the contested seats in that year, there wil be GOP control of the Senate at a point when those up for election in 2014 are currently 20 Democrats and only 13 Republicans.
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