The post convention bounce for McCain has vaulted him into the lead in the national polls, although not by much. Now, however, the state by state polling results are coming out, and they show a major plus for the Republican. Just today, a new poll from marist in New Jersey shows Obama up by 3% in that state. If that poll of registered voters is accurate, Obama is in real trouble in this very blue state. The shift to likely voters usually favors the Republicans, and there is always the issue of the Bradley effect skewing the poll results towards Obama. On the other hand, New Jersey always seems to be closer in polls with the Republican doing better in September than in November. Still, if Obama loses New Jersey, he will never be president.
Another interesting poll is yesterday's Rasmussen poll in Washington. Obama leads by 2% in this western bastion of Democratic presidential voters. (Washington last voted Republican in the Reagan landslide of 1984). If Washington is truly in play at this point in the campaign, Obama is in deep trouble.
It will be extremely interesting to see what happens to McCain's lead once the debates start. If he can increase his lead due to all of the Obama campaign miscues (lipstick on pigs, McCain can't e-mail because of his war wounds, serial sexist attacks on Sarah Palin), McCain may be able to put the election away in the next montht. Sure, events could still change things, but if the electorate comes to see Obama and his campaign as sexist bumblers, there will be no particular groundswell to put them in charge of the country. Obama needs to change the dynamic now -- and unlike the latest ad castigating McCain for his war injuries, Obama has to change the dynamic in his favor.
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