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Monday, August 12, 2019

A Smart Move In Hong Kong

The protesters in Hong Kong have made a very smart move.  After weeks of escalating confrontations with the police, there has been a change of tactics.  Today, thousands of protesters went to the Hong Kong airport and filled the place to overflowing.  The congestion was so great that flights into and out of the busy airport were canceled.  No one was hurt (at least so far).  Nothing was destroyed (again, at least so far.)  Air travel, however, which is an essential part of commerce in the city, came to a halt.  The police cannot just arrest everyone at the airport, though, because there are still a great many passengers at the airport who are totally innocent.  The Chinese government may decide to take everyone in anyway, but this will be a major black mark on that government with tens of thousands of foreign travelers.  To the extent that there are still those visiting Hong Kong as tourists, this should stop much of the remaining traffic.  Even business travelers will reduce their visits or avoid the area completely.

Without a doubt, the Chinese will have some counter-measure in place in the near term.  Until then, however, this is a major move by the protesters.

The government of President Xi must be supremely concerned.  News of the events in Hong Kong cannot be kept from a large swath of the Chinese people.  If the protests were to spread to cities like Shanghai or Beijing, it could threaten the control of the Communist Party.  That is unlikely, but it is an existential concern for Xi and his party.  It is not a threat that will be taken lightly.  For decades, the Chinese have had no freedom but they have gotten rapid economic growth in its place.  Now that rapid economic growth has halted and the trade disputes with the USA make a recovery less likely.  It's another reason why the Chinese government should want a resolution with the USA sooner rather than leter.

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