The AP is out with a story under screaming headlines that say "74% of all Economists in Survey See US Recession by the End of 2021." That means a disaster is coming, right? Actually, WRONG!
It is two and a half years until the end of 2021. It has been ten years since the end of the last recession. Over the last 100 years, the US economy has gone into recession on average once every 5.4 years. If you look at the last 150 years, the recessions came even more frequently. That means we are already overdue for a recession. Any economist who knows anything about economic history knows that a recession is due. After all, it's called the "business cycle" because the economy moves in cycles of growth and contraction ( or recession). If anything, the surprise should be that 26% of economists in the survey did NOT see a recession by the end of 2021. That's a big vote of confidence in current economic strength.
So why is the AP making such a big deal about this survey of economists? (and by the way which economists did they survey -- AP doesn't tell us.) The answer is that the AP is trying to make our strong economy look weak in the hopes of hastening a recession and maybe, just maybe, hurting President Trump's chances for re-election.
It would be nice if the AP would put this discussion into context by explaining the business cycle and the normal frequency of recessions. That isn't going to happen, though.
It is two and a half years until the end of 2021. It has been ten years since the end of the last recession. Over the last 100 years, the US economy has gone into recession on average once every 5.4 years. If you look at the last 150 years, the recessions came even more frequently. That means we are already overdue for a recession. Any economist who knows anything about economic history knows that a recession is due. After all, it's called the "business cycle" because the economy moves in cycles of growth and contraction ( or recession). If anything, the surprise should be that 26% of economists in the survey did NOT see a recession by the end of 2021. That's a big vote of confidence in current economic strength.
So why is the AP making such a big deal about this survey of economists? (and by the way which economists did they survey -- AP doesn't tell us.) The answer is that the AP is trying to make our strong economy look weak in the hopes of hastening a recession and maybe, just maybe, hurting President Trump's chances for re-election.
It would be nice if the AP would put this discussion into context by explaining the business cycle and the normal frequency of recessions. That isn't going to happen, though.
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