What's Going on in Pennsylvania?

One of the biggest election stories at the moment is the move by the Romney campaign into Pennsylvania. In the last week, Romney and some GOP super PACs bought well over $6 million in TV ads in the state. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan both campaigned in the state. It was as if Pennsylvania were suddenly discovered by the Romney campaign. So what really happened here?

If you read the articles in the mainstream media, you hear that according to the Romney camp, the polls for the state showed Romney with a good chance at victory, so the effort to obtain a win in the state was begun. You also hear that according to the Obama campaign, this is a hail Mary attempt by the Romney team since they realize that Ohio is lost. Most of the analysis from the main stream media adds little anecdotes like the supposedly high placed GOP authority who says that the ad buy came about because there was nowhere else to put the money. Many others also said that this was just a feint by the Romney team to try to get Obama to concentrate on a state where it would already win.

Most of what is being said is nonsense. Let's look at the facts:

1) The bulk of the ad buys in Pennsylvania are not from the Romney campaign. Well over 80% of the spending is coming from super PACs with the biggest being the one run by Karl Rove. These PACs have many other places that they could put the funds. There are many extremely close races for Congress where candidates could use all the help they can get. Further, Rove, of all people, knows how to read polls. He would not waste millions of dollars in a quixotic effort to win the unwinable.

2) The polls in Pennsylvania have moved steadily towards Romney since the first debate. The gap has moved the state from likely Obama to leaning Obama and, now, to too close to call.

3) There is palpable enthusiasm in Pennsylvania for Romney which has not been there for years for a GOP candidate.

4) The state has a about a million more registered Democrats that Republicans. That has not changed but the allegiances of those Democrats may have changed. In Southwestern Pennsylvania, there are hundreds of thousands of Democrats whose lives are tied to the local coal industry and there are many others who livelihood depends on the new natural gas industry. Both of those groups feel greatly threatened by Obama's energy policies. The area from Pittsburgh to the southwest corner of the state used to produce majorities for Democrats. This year there is likely to be a heavy majority there for Romney.

5) The suburban counties around Philadelphia (Montgomery, Delaware, Bucks and Chester) went for Obama in 2008. This time, Romney seems to have much more appeal to these folks than McCain had last time. Shifting these counties to a Romney margin or, more likely, to a greatly reduced Obama margin could flip the state.

6) The turnout in Philadelphia is almost certain to be less than it was four years ago. While the population of the city is almost unchanged in the last four years, the number of registered voters is lower by about 7%. It seems almost inconceivable that the voting levels could reach those of 2008. If enthusiasm for voting is not as high in Philadelphia and if there is even a 5% shift back towards Romney and the GOP among the voters other than the African Americans, the margin for Obama in Philadelphia will fall by well over 100,000 votes.

The truth is that Pennsylvania should be close, and Romney has a true chance to pull off a victory there. If that happens, then Romney will be president.