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Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Predictions Were Wrong, But It Doesn't Matter

This morning I came across an article written by someone named Aaron David Miller in Politico Magazine.  Miller's thesis is that no one should be fooled by the muted reaction to the decision by President Trump to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital.  Miller says the decision was just political and not related to foreign policy and also that the decision was a disaster.  Then he comes to the money sentence of his entire article:

Rather than any explosion of anger, what we’re more likely to witness is the continuation of a long, grim and nasty grind.

Get that?  Miller, who says he has been involved in Middle East peace talks for many decades, tells us that the result of Trump's supposedly terrible decision is that things will continue as before, and this continuation is proof that this move by Trump was a disaster.

Even for a liberal academic, this is a ridiculous argument.  Remember, before President Trump recognized reality and said that Jerusalem is Israel's capital, people like Miller told us all that such recognition would lead to waves of violence and anger across the Arab world.  The "peace process" would be destroyed (as if there really is a peace process).  They described the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital in apocalyptic terms.  Then the President ignored the warnings of the liberal self-proclaimed cognoscenti, and there was essentially no response.  Oh, the usual people denounced the action; the Palestinian Authority called for yet a few more days of "rage"; but aside from the shows, nothing much happened.  So the "geniuses" of the peace process like Miller, who have failed with their old policies to make any progress for the last 20 years, were proven wrong.  Well, they can't have that, can they?  So Miller has a new argument:  with Trump's move, things will continue as before.  Obviously, that means Trump's move was a failure (according to Miller).  Of course, if you think for a moment, you would realize that what Miller wanted was for Trump not to recognize Jerusalem so that things could continue as before.  We have the same outcome either way according to Miller, but with recognition it is a disaster brought by Trump and without recognition it is motion toward peace due to following policies Miller likes.

Sometimes I wonder how educated people like Miller can write such nonsense.

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