The UN Security Council voted additional sanctions on North Korea this week. At this point, nearly every sanction possible has been put on the NK's. Russia and China voted for these latest sanctions, so the NK's may not find much support from their traditional allies. The real question is whether or not the NK's will back down from their current course of missile and nuclear weapons tests.
This is a hard question to answer since we are dealing with the man President Trump calls "Little Rocket Man". Kim Jung Un does not appear to act rationally at all times. He believes that the best way for the survival of his regime to be guaranteed is for it to have deliverable nukes. Kim believes that the USA would never take him out if he has the capability to destroy Los Angeles or New York in return. That's probably true, but it's also true that President Trump understands this and does not want to get to that point. As a result, this increases the pressure for the President to take action very soon to wipe out the NK nuclear and missile capability before any American city can be destroyed in the NK response.
There are now calls for the President to take some military action against the NK's to show Kim that his days will be numbered if he continues down the present course. One commonly pushed idea is that the USA should destroy the next NK missile on the launch pad before it can be tested. This would be a major escalation of tension and confrontation. It would also push Kim to the point where he may feel he has no choice but to fire back in response. Alternatively, Kim might accept the idea that if he does fire back, his remaining days on earth will be few. The NKs could start discussing peace. Stranger things have happened.
My own expectation is that were the USA to take out a missile on the launch pad in North Korea, the Kim government would launch a salvo of artillery towards Seoul within and hour. Tens of thousands would die and the destruction would be enormous. Total war in Korea would follow. I put the odds of that response at between 50 and 60%. Of course, it's a far better thing to see that happen than to see a nuke dropped on Seoul. This is one decision, I'm glad I don't have to make. There are no good choices, only those that are terrible and those that are bad.
This is a hard question to answer since we are dealing with the man President Trump calls "Little Rocket Man". Kim Jung Un does not appear to act rationally at all times. He believes that the best way for the survival of his regime to be guaranteed is for it to have deliverable nukes. Kim believes that the USA would never take him out if he has the capability to destroy Los Angeles or New York in return. That's probably true, but it's also true that President Trump understands this and does not want to get to that point. As a result, this increases the pressure for the President to take action very soon to wipe out the NK nuclear and missile capability before any American city can be destroyed in the NK response.
There are now calls for the President to take some military action against the NK's to show Kim that his days will be numbered if he continues down the present course. One commonly pushed idea is that the USA should destroy the next NK missile on the launch pad before it can be tested. This would be a major escalation of tension and confrontation. It would also push Kim to the point where he may feel he has no choice but to fire back in response. Alternatively, Kim might accept the idea that if he does fire back, his remaining days on earth will be few. The NKs could start discussing peace. Stranger things have happened.
My own expectation is that were the USA to take out a missile on the launch pad in North Korea, the Kim government would launch a salvo of artillery towards Seoul within and hour. Tens of thousands would die and the destruction would be enormous. Total war in Korea would follow. I put the odds of that response at between 50 and 60%. Of course, it's a far better thing to see that happen than to see a nuke dropped on Seoul. This is one decision, I'm glad I don't have to make. There are no good choices, only those that are terrible and those that are bad.
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