Wither ISIS?

Yesterday,  an acquaintance asked me a question that we could discuss when we next spoke.  He noted that I had written about the decimation of Isis and wanted to know how,  if at all,  Isis’s recent horrific attack in Afghanistan changed my view.  Instead of waiting to speak to him,  I decided to answer his question here,  since others may have had similar thoughts.

 

Simply put, ISIS is on the path to total destruction.  It won't disappear, but it will fade away slowly.  We will, however, be faced with occasional attacks by the loony thugs and their fellow travelers.  Here's why:

 

1.  ISIS has lost the so-called Caliphate.  The terrorists now control about 1% of the land that they held at the greatest extent of their conquests in Iraq and Syria.  From roughly 50,000 fighters, there are now about 1000 in those two countries.  Over 70,000 ISIS fighters have died.  That's 70,000 terrorists who won't be going elsewhere to carry out attacks.  It won't be long before all areas of ISIS control in Syria disappear just as they have in Iraq. 

2.  ISIS has been losing in a big way in 2017.  They were losing in 2016 as well, but they were still a formidable fighting force at that time.  It was only after the change in battle tactics and control measures put in place by President Trump that the ISIS collapse really got moving.  In recent months, we have seen the first mass surrenders by ISIS fighters.  If these supposed true believers are now deciding that they will stay alive and surrender rather than fight to the death to secure their place in paradise, then the ISIS religious ideology is also collapsing.

3.  Because of the major losses that ISIS has suffered, its popularity has waned among potential recruits.  As a result, the number of new ISIS fighters coming to join the effort in Iraq and Syria has gone from a torrent to a trickle to a completely dry riverbed.  Without new ISIS recruits, the whole effort by ISIS ends.  People seeing a victorious group may want to join that group, but very few people sit in their homes thinking how much they would like to go join a clearly losing cause where they will likely be killed for their efforts.

4.  The bombing in Afghanistan and other attacks around the world are signs that ISIS is not yet dead.  They do not indicate a change in the direction of ISIS' fortunes, however.  Attacks like this will continue until all the ISIS fighters get disillusioned or are killed.  The war, however, is nearing its conclusion.  Think of it this way.  In April of 1865, the Confederacy was a defeated remnant of the country that it had been in 1861 to 1863 when it fought the Union to a standstill on many front and even invaded the North on two occasions.  The Confederate armies had been smashed and most Confederate territory was in Union hands.  Nevertheless, the defeated group still mounted a dramatic attack on President Lincoln that resulted in his death.  It didn't change the outcome or direction of the war at all because the Union fought on with resolve to hit the south wherever it could.  So long as the USA and our coalition allies continue to fight against ISIS wherever it appears, there will come the inevitable end.  And, indeed, that is just what we are doing.  As ISIS appears in Libya, we take action there.  As ISIS appears in Somalia or Yemen or Afghanistan, we must take action there too.  No one, not even a crazed religious fanatic wants to follow a course that leads to inevitable defeat and death.  As long as we keep making clear that defeat and death is the direction in which ISIS is heading, people will continue to avoid participation and those already in the group will try to find ways to get out.