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Saturday, December 2, 2017

The News That No One Covers

Here's an extremely important bit of news that is getting almost no coverage.  According to Syrian and other Middle Eastern media, overnight Israeli missiles hit the Iranian base under construction at al-Kiswah which is south of Damascus toward Israeli territory.  The missiles were fired from Israeli planes flying over Lebanon, and they inflicted serious damage on the Iranian base.  The Syrians claim to have shot down two of the missiles, but that appears to be a false claim.

So why is this so important?  Isn't it just another of those battles that happen daily in the Middle East?  The answer is that this attack was made by Israelis on Iranians.  The Iranians are the principal foreign supporters of the Assad regime in Syria.  The terrorists of Hezbollah and the Shiite militias fighting in Syria are under Iranian control.  Iran, itself, has troops in the country.  Until recently, however, the Iranians have not tried to put forces near the Israeli border.  The base at al-Kiswah was the first place where Iran tried to change that policy.  The base is less than 30 miles from Israel.  When the Israelis learned of the base construction, they warned the Syrian regime that they would not tolerate an Iranian base near their border.  The Israeli government also warned Assad's other supporter, Russia, of their position.  Nothing, however, changed.  The construction of the Iranian base continued.  Then came last night's raid.  It was Israel enforcing its red line.

The question now is what will be the reaction.  The Russians basically won't care.  They are interested in maintaining their own bases in Syria, mainly the naval base in Latakia on the Mediterranean Sea.  The Assad regime will denounce the attack and even make false claims about how it shot down the missiles.  The reality, however, is that Assad is way too weak to make any move against Israel.  Assad knows that the Israelis could wipe him out pretty quickly.  That leaves the Iranians.  It is the mullahs in Teheran who will take the next step.  They might just back off in the face of Israeli resolve.  More likely, however, we will see some sort of response through other means.  Maybe Hezbollah will launch missiles at Israel from Lebanon.  Maybe some Israeli target around the world will get hit.  Back in the 1990s, the Iranians bombed the Israeli embassy and a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, Argentina killing hundreds.  It's the kind of attack that could lead to much more very quickly.

One thing is certain, the next move is coming, and it is unlikely to be a happy one.

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