Obama's speech in Arizona

I am back after a great vacation in the Caribbean and I just watched the video of Obama's speech about the tragedy in Arizona. It was a good speech. The president spoke about the tragedy and about how we should deal with it. In a departutre from his usual speeches, he did not speak about himself. Obama also did not go along with the crazies on the left who tried to pin the acts of a derranged individual on Sarah Palin or Conservatives in general. Of course, since it is now clear to everyone that the attacker was completely non-political and has been holding a grudge against the Congresswoman since before Sarah Palin ever arrived on the National scene, it would have been extremely stupid for Obama to have gone along with the loony left in its baseless attacks. Nevertheless, Obama deserves credit for a good speech.

I do find it humorous, however, to read and hear the comments that Obama is rehabilitating himself with the speech. It seems that there is a chorus that constantly sings about Obama's return in an unending harmony every time he does something that is not a disaster. When he caved in to agree to no tax increases during hard times, Obama had "snookered" the Republicans (by agreeing to what they wanted) and was on the way back. When Don't Ask Don't Tell was repealed by large majorities in congress, Obama was re-establishing himself (even though the vote seemed a foregone conclusion -- once the Pentagon report had been issued). Even the recess appointments were touted as some sort of great presidential strategem showing how Obama was reborn. Now comes this speech. Let's all swoon over Obama's renaissance!

The truth is that the fate of the Obama presidency is in the hands of the Bureau of labor statistics. If unemployment remains high in 2012, Obama will lose unless the GOP nominates a truly divisive candidate like Sarah Palin (in which case it could go either way). If growth returns to the economy and real unemployment drops substantially, Obama is likely to be re-elected. The rest of this is all window dressing. Sure, there could be a scandal or an international crisis that changes things, but right now, to use the old Carville phrase, "It's the Economy Stupid!"