Will Pennsylvania be decisive?

Last Spring, pundits discussing the presidential race included Pennsylvania in their lists of battleground states. Then, over the summer, the polls indicated that president Obama had opened a sizeable lead in the Keystone State. Both the Romney and Obama campaigns moved resources out of Pennsylvania to focus on other, more hotly contested places like Florida, Ohio or Virginia. Pennsylvania became a backwater in the presidential race. Now, however, that appears to be changing. Romney has surged in his support in the state. A recent poll by long time state pollster Susquehanna shows Romney in the lead by four percent. Other polls put Obama in the lead but they also show the race getting tighter. Because of the way the campaign has unfolded, this gives Romney an enormous opportunity. Let me explain:

Voters in the swing states have been deluged for months with non-stop campaign commercials. If you live in Ohio, you heard over and over again that Romney is an evil plutocrat who only cares about the rich and who had no problems causing the death of the wife of one of his employees. The full package of negative lies offered by the Obama campaign has been hitting you for months. In addition, you have also been hearing for months from Romney about his plans and also about why Obama has been a total failure for America. Voters in Ohio are way beyond sick of this stuff. In order to make an impact there, the campaigns need something more than TV; Romney's debate victories cut through the clutter, but no thirty second ad could do so. That, however, is not true in Pennsylvania. Sure, there have been some ad buys in the state, but most of the campaign commercials have never been seen by Pennsylvanians. Were Romney to suddenly make a major purchase in the state and to run a barrage of ads, there would be a short burst of unanswered pro-Romney advertising that could change more than a few votes.

Obama has also managed to alienate big chunks of Pennsylvania. In the southwestern part of the state, coal is still an important industry. Obama is shutting this down. In much of the state, natural gas has become the driver of growth, and Obama has been threatening this as well. Sure, Obama has denied these positions during the debates, but the people who have been affected know better at this point. Pennsylvania has also been extremely concerned with economic growth and jobs. With two weeks to go until the election, Obama still has no plan for the next for years on that front. That failure is having a corrosive effect on his support in Pennsylvania.

Right now, the odds still favor an Obama win in the Keystone state. Those odds, however, which used to be something like 6 to 1 in Obama's favor are now down in the range of 3 to 2. If Romney pivots to make a major effort in the Keystone State, we could see those odds move towards 50-50 or even to Romney's favor. And let's be clear: if Romney wins in Pennsylvania, the election is his.