The passengers from the Diamond Princess cruise ship are starting to leave. There were 3700 people aboard (passengers and crew) when the ship was quarantined off the shore at Yokohama, Japan a little less than 2 weeks ago. The quarantine was imposed because a man who left the ship in Hong Kong six days earlier had just been diagnosed with the corona virus. The Japanese authorities decided to take no chance that others on the ship might have been infected.
Well now, two weeks later, there are over 500 people who were on that ship who have been diagnosed with the virus. That's about 15% of everyone on board. The new cases continue to appear even though the people on board have been quarantined for all this time. That means that those on board have been in their cabins and separated for all that time.
So how did the virus spread? Did the people on board catch it from the guy who got off in Hong Kong? He left the ship 19 days ago. Since the medical experts tell us that the incubation period could not be more than 14 days, those coming down with new cases could not have caught it from that guy (patient zero in epidemiology terms). So where did these new people catch the virus? If they were sharing a room with someone else who had caught the virus, they could have gotten it in that way. The problem is that some of the new cases are people who were in room where no one had previously been sick. Did they catch it prior to the quarantine from others with the virus who had not yet shown any symptoms? That too is possible, but the "experts" again tell us that people with no symptoms are much less likely to spread the disease. So why the avalanche of new cases in the last four days?
One rather horrible possibility is that the quarantine measures put in place have been insufficient. Perhaps someone preparing food for the passengers was infected and the disease was spread by means of the food being distributed to the quarantined people. Even worse is the possibility that the disease can linger in the air long enough to pass through the ship's ventilation systems and it spread in that manner.
The Diamond Princess is the only site in the world outside China where there are so many known cases. It is also the largest controlled area of people quarantined for which we can have observations. We need to know how the disease on board spread in this way.
Well now, two weeks later, there are over 500 people who were on that ship who have been diagnosed with the virus. That's about 15% of everyone on board. The new cases continue to appear even though the people on board have been quarantined for all this time. That means that those on board have been in their cabins and separated for all that time.
So how did the virus spread? Did the people on board catch it from the guy who got off in Hong Kong? He left the ship 19 days ago. Since the medical experts tell us that the incubation period could not be more than 14 days, those coming down with new cases could not have caught it from that guy (patient zero in epidemiology terms). So where did these new people catch the virus? If they were sharing a room with someone else who had caught the virus, they could have gotten it in that way. The problem is that some of the new cases are people who were in room where no one had previously been sick. Did they catch it prior to the quarantine from others with the virus who had not yet shown any symptoms? That too is possible, but the "experts" again tell us that people with no symptoms are much less likely to spread the disease. So why the avalanche of new cases in the last four days?
One rather horrible possibility is that the quarantine measures put in place have been insufficient. Perhaps someone preparing food for the passengers was infected and the disease was spread by means of the food being distributed to the quarantined people. Even worse is the possibility that the disease can linger in the air long enough to pass through the ship's ventilation systems and it spread in that manner.
The Diamond Princess is the only site in the world outside China where there are so many known cases. It is also the largest controlled area of people quarantined for which we can have observations. We need to know how the disease on board spread in this way.
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