The latest updates on the corona virus say that 813 people have died (including 811 in China and 1 in Hong Kong). Over 37,000 people have been diagnosed as having the virus. Nearly all of them are also in China. The question that presents itself, however, is are these numbers accurate.
We know that there are people who have been infected who either have mild symptoms or no symptoms. There's an incubation period after infection before symptoms show in anyone. Experts are still not sure how long that incubation period is or if it is the same for everyone infected. They believe it is not more than 14 days, however. That's why people who get quarantined have not been required to stay more than 14 days. So how many more people are in the process of getting to the point where a full blown disease appears? And how many people have a mild case for which they don't even recognize the need to seek treatment. After all, it might just be a cold.
And then there's the death toll. Are the Chinese downplaying this? The number of deaths reported hit 89 on Saturday. It's unclear if that is just for that day alone or if some were deaths from the prior few days as well. In any event, that means that the total death toll rose by more than 11% in just one day. But is that all? Word has leaked out of China that the mortuaries in the province where the virus is centered are having trouble keeping up with the cremation of those who have died. No information is available which shows how many crematoria are in place in Wuhan and the surrounding province. There are over 60 million people in Hubei province, however, so there should be plenty of places to cremate a body. Just considering the normal death rate in China for the last five years, there should be more than 420,000 deaths expected in Hubei province in an average year without the corona virus. That's something like 1200 deaths per day. Although most Chinese are buried rather than cremated, there still should be more than adequate infrastructure to handle the extra cremations if the numbers released by the Chinese government are accurate. While there's no confirmation that the stories about the shortages of crematoria are accurate, they do present a troubling question.
We can all understand why the Chinese would fudge the numbers. The government would like to downplay the gravity of the situation in order to avoid panic and maintain support. Are they actually doing this though?
Beyond these questions, the latest numbers -- if accurate -- do not present a situation which shows the disease peaking. That conclusion could only come after the number of people being reported dead each day starts to clearly decline for a week or more. China is surely not there yet.
We know that there are people who have been infected who either have mild symptoms or no symptoms. There's an incubation period after infection before symptoms show in anyone. Experts are still not sure how long that incubation period is or if it is the same for everyone infected. They believe it is not more than 14 days, however. That's why people who get quarantined have not been required to stay more than 14 days. So how many more people are in the process of getting to the point where a full blown disease appears? And how many people have a mild case for which they don't even recognize the need to seek treatment. After all, it might just be a cold.
And then there's the death toll. Are the Chinese downplaying this? The number of deaths reported hit 89 on Saturday. It's unclear if that is just for that day alone or if some were deaths from the prior few days as well. In any event, that means that the total death toll rose by more than 11% in just one day. But is that all? Word has leaked out of China that the mortuaries in the province where the virus is centered are having trouble keeping up with the cremation of those who have died. No information is available which shows how many crematoria are in place in Wuhan and the surrounding province. There are over 60 million people in Hubei province, however, so there should be plenty of places to cremate a body. Just considering the normal death rate in China for the last five years, there should be more than 420,000 deaths expected in Hubei province in an average year without the corona virus. That's something like 1200 deaths per day. Although most Chinese are buried rather than cremated, there still should be more than adequate infrastructure to handle the extra cremations if the numbers released by the Chinese government are accurate. While there's no confirmation that the stories about the shortages of crematoria are accurate, they do present a troubling question.
We can all understand why the Chinese would fudge the numbers. The government would like to downplay the gravity of the situation in order to avoid panic and maintain support. Are they actually doing this though?
Beyond these questions, the latest numbers -- if accurate -- do not present a situation which shows the disease peaking. That conclusion could only come after the number of people being reported dead each day starts to clearly decline for a week or more. China is surely not there yet.
No comments:
Post a Comment