We've seen tanker bombings and seizures, the downing of drones, the supply of missiles to Hezbollah, and many other moves by Iran in the last year. None of the Iranian moves were aimed at peace; all was done to achieve maximum confrontation. The question that remains is what will the mullahs in Teheran do next.
Let's start with Iran's current situation. It is still a signatory to the JCPOA, the agreement regarding its nuclear program. The USA withdrew from that agreement over a year ago, but the Europeans, Japanese and Russians remain participants. Despite the requirements of the JCPOA, however, Iran has violated the maximum levels of uranium enrichment allowed by that agreement. This is not some intelligence estimate; it is confirmed by statements by the Iranians themselves. Iran is now closer to having nuclear weapons than ever.
At the same time, however, Iran is suffering from the effect of American sanctions. The new sanctions imposed by the Trump administration have been severely hurting Iran. Its oil production has fallen and it is now facing difficulties selling even that reduced production on the world market. In the near term, oil revenues are likely to collapse by 25-50%, something that would remove the basic financial underpinning of the Islamic regime. There has been domestic unrest although that seems to have died out as of now. The regime knows, though, that there is great domestic dissatisfaction with the current government that could reappear quickly if the conditions warrant it. Iran is facing a difficult future.
The Iranian response has not been to seek a new agreement with Washington. Instead, Iran has opted to increase tensions through moves that have some measure of deniability but which are obviously Iranian controlled. The mullahs hope that facing a possible war, President Trump and the USA will back away from confrontation. So far, that has not been the case except that Trump did cancel a retaliatory air strike on an Iranian base after one of these Iranian provocations. The President understands that right now time is not on the Iranians' side; the noose of sanctions is tightening.
Iran seems to be aiming towards attacking Israel as its next move. The Israelis have formed a defacto alliance with the Sunni Arab countries that surround Iran. That alliance is basically anti-Iran. Saudi Arabia is still nominally an enemy of Israel, but their commonality of interest in confronting Iran has moved reality far in the other direction. It is this alliance that seems to be Iran's target.
The Iranians have been building bases in southern Syria for Hezbollah, a proxy force of mostly Lebanese Shiites that is under total Iranian control. Iran has been smuggling weapons to Hezbollah as well as to the terrorists of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Hamas had been negotiating cease fire agreements with Israel, but lately it has moved back towards armed confrontation. Just yesterday, five heavily armed Hamas fighters were detected trying to infiltrate into Israel from Gaza. Israeli troops confronted them and the terrorists were killed in the resulting firefight. Hamas has also resumed firing periodic missiles into southern Israel from Gaza.
The fear is that at some point soon, Iran will direct its proxy forces to unleash a full scale attack on Israel. Given the tens of thousands of missiles Iran has sent to Hamas and Hezbollah, there is no way that the Israeli missile defenses will be able to shoot all of them down. There will almost assuredly be casualties and damage across much of Israel. That will force the Israeli government -- no matter who is prime minister -- to launch attacks to erase the threat. Gaza will be reoccupied and house to house searches will destroy the missiles. There will certainly be many casualties. Southern portions of Lebanon and Syria will be occupied as well. Again, there will be heavy casualties. And make no mistake about it; these casualties are the goal of the Iranians. They want to be able to point to the Saudis and say that they are allied with Israel which is busy killing Muslims in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. Iran wants to use the deaths in the fighting to drive a wedge between Israel and its new Sunni Arab allies.
Of course, it is not just the Iranians who are planning for the future. Israel and the USA also can make plans and take actions. It well may be that the Israelis will launch air attacks on Iranian nuclear installations and destroy them. These attacks could come from airbases in Saudi Arabia just across the Persian Gulf from Iran. Launching from those bases would put the Iranian nuclear sites in easy reach of the Israeli planes. Of course, it would be denied that the attacks came from Saudi Arabia, but the Saudis would like nothing better than to see the threat of Iranian nukes erased.
The USA may also decide that given the actions of the Iranian naval forces towards tankers in the Straits of Hormuz, there should be a naval blockade against Iran. All Iranian vessels would be warned that they cannot set sail into the Persian Gulf on pain of being boarded or sunk. This would cripple what is left of the Iranian oil trade. It would also leave Iran with the choice of either compliance or war. And that would be a war that Iran would not want to face. Of course, the Iranian response might also include launching the attack on Israel discussed above. We could see a wider war in the Middle East.
There are other players in the region who also would have plans that need to be considered. Russia is the main actor in that regard. Were the USA and Iran to face off, the Russians might speak on the side of the Iranians, but it is highly doubtful that the Russians would want to get involved in any fighting. They might, however, "sell" military supplies to Iran. An Israeli attack into Syria, however, could actually bring the Russians into the fight. After all, the Assad regime is Russia's client in the region and they would not want to see that beleaguered government battered further. Still, I have to believe that Russia would agree to some sort of limits placed on the Israeli attack for which they would then stand aside. Russia's main goal is to keep its bases in Latakia and elsewhere in Syria. A full scale war could lead to the loss of those bases should the fighting not go well. Indeed, Putin might seek and get some major concessions from the Israelis in exchange for Russia staying out of the battle, and that is much more Putin's style.
All of the above is just speculation. Still, the question as to what Iran will do next is a critical one. Hopefully, as the administration moves forward pondering what to do in the region, there can be some measure of unity within Congress and the government about how to proceed. The situation is far too dangerous right now to be kept as yet another political football. For once, it might be nice to see a situation in which the needs of the nation overcome the irrational hatred of the President by the Democrats.
Let's start with Iran's current situation. It is still a signatory to the JCPOA, the agreement regarding its nuclear program. The USA withdrew from that agreement over a year ago, but the Europeans, Japanese and Russians remain participants. Despite the requirements of the JCPOA, however, Iran has violated the maximum levels of uranium enrichment allowed by that agreement. This is not some intelligence estimate; it is confirmed by statements by the Iranians themselves. Iran is now closer to having nuclear weapons than ever.
At the same time, however, Iran is suffering from the effect of American sanctions. The new sanctions imposed by the Trump administration have been severely hurting Iran. Its oil production has fallen and it is now facing difficulties selling even that reduced production on the world market. In the near term, oil revenues are likely to collapse by 25-50%, something that would remove the basic financial underpinning of the Islamic regime. There has been domestic unrest although that seems to have died out as of now. The regime knows, though, that there is great domestic dissatisfaction with the current government that could reappear quickly if the conditions warrant it. Iran is facing a difficult future.
The Iranian response has not been to seek a new agreement with Washington. Instead, Iran has opted to increase tensions through moves that have some measure of deniability but which are obviously Iranian controlled. The mullahs hope that facing a possible war, President Trump and the USA will back away from confrontation. So far, that has not been the case except that Trump did cancel a retaliatory air strike on an Iranian base after one of these Iranian provocations. The President understands that right now time is not on the Iranians' side; the noose of sanctions is tightening.
Iran seems to be aiming towards attacking Israel as its next move. The Israelis have formed a defacto alliance with the Sunni Arab countries that surround Iran. That alliance is basically anti-Iran. Saudi Arabia is still nominally an enemy of Israel, but their commonality of interest in confronting Iran has moved reality far in the other direction. It is this alliance that seems to be Iran's target.
The Iranians have been building bases in southern Syria for Hezbollah, a proxy force of mostly Lebanese Shiites that is under total Iranian control. Iran has been smuggling weapons to Hezbollah as well as to the terrorists of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Hamas had been negotiating cease fire agreements with Israel, but lately it has moved back towards armed confrontation. Just yesterday, five heavily armed Hamas fighters were detected trying to infiltrate into Israel from Gaza. Israeli troops confronted them and the terrorists were killed in the resulting firefight. Hamas has also resumed firing periodic missiles into southern Israel from Gaza.
The fear is that at some point soon, Iran will direct its proxy forces to unleash a full scale attack on Israel. Given the tens of thousands of missiles Iran has sent to Hamas and Hezbollah, there is no way that the Israeli missile defenses will be able to shoot all of them down. There will almost assuredly be casualties and damage across much of Israel. That will force the Israeli government -- no matter who is prime minister -- to launch attacks to erase the threat. Gaza will be reoccupied and house to house searches will destroy the missiles. There will certainly be many casualties. Southern portions of Lebanon and Syria will be occupied as well. Again, there will be heavy casualties. And make no mistake about it; these casualties are the goal of the Iranians. They want to be able to point to the Saudis and say that they are allied with Israel which is busy killing Muslims in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. Iran wants to use the deaths in the fighting to drive a wedge between Israel and its new Sunni Arab allies.
Of course, it is not just the Iranians who are planning for the future. Israel and the USA also can make plans and take actions. It well may be that the Israelis will launch air attacks on Iranian nuclear installations and destroy them. These attacks could come from airbases in Saudi Arabia just across the Persian Gulf from Iran. Launching from those bases would put the Iranian nuclear sites in easy reach of the Israeli planes. Of course, it would be denied that the attacks came from Saudi Arabia, but the Saudis would like nothing better than to see the threat of Iranian nukes erased.
The USA may also decide that given the actions of the Iranian naval forces towards tankers in the Straits of Hormuz, there should be a naval blockade against Iran. All Iranian vessels would be warned that they cannot set sail into the Persian Gulf on pain of being boarded or sunk. This would cripple what is left of the Iranian oil trade. It would also leave Iran with the choice of either compliance or war. And that would be a war that Iran would not want to face. Of course, the Iranian response might also include launching the attack on Israel discussed above. We could see a wider war in the Middle East.
There are other players in the region who also would have plans that need to be considered. Russia is the main actor in that regard. Were the USA and Iran to face off, the Russians might speak on the side of the Iranians, but it is highly doubtful that the Russians would want to get involved in any fighting. They might, however, "sell" military supplies to Iran. An Israeli attack into Syria, however, could actually bring the Russians into the fight. After all, the Assad regime is Russia's client in the region and they would not want to see that beleaguered government battered further. Still, I have to believe that Russia would agree to some sort of limits placed on the Israeli attack for which they would then stand aside. Russia's main goal is to keep its bases in Latakia and elsewhere in Syria. A full scale war could lead to the loss of those bases should the fighting not go well. Indeed, Putin might seek and get some major concessions from the Israelis in exchange for Russia staying out of the battle, and that is much more Putin's style.
All of the above is just speculation. Still, the question as to what Iran will do next is a critical one. Hopefully, as the administration moves forward pondering what to do in the region, there can be some measure of unity within Congress and the government about how to proceed. The situation is far too dangerous right now to be kept as yet another political football. For once, it might be nice to see a situation in which the needs of the nation overcome the irrational hatred of the President by the Democrats.
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