The Beginning of the End For Old Joe

It's hard to believe that Old Joe Biden could get worse on the campaign trail than he has been in the past, but things have gotten so bad that even the mainstream liberal media that normally covers for people like Joe is hitting him about it.  The other day, Biden gave a speech in which he conflated three stories, two of which had nothing to do with him, into a tale about how he went to a dangerous area to award a medal to a captain who had performed heroically.  The story Old Joe told to the crowd was so far from the truth, that the Washington Post, of all places, called him on it.  It was the kind of story that if Donald Trump had made the same sort of mistake, we would have seen three weeks of non-stop coverage about it.

That was bad enough, but here's what Biden said this afternoon.  He was talking about why we need to give citizenship to illegal aliens.  Biden actually said this:

"These kids who come, and they end up doing well, they become Americans before a lot of Americans become Americans.  No, I'm serious.."

So Old Joe thinks that the Americans who are Americans from birth don't become Americans as quickly as the illegals who sneak into the country.  Huh?  It's one thing to support citizenship for illegals.  That's a political dispute.  Biden advocates for that, and I don't agree with him; nor do most Americans according to the polls.  It's something completely different to announce that illegals become Americans before Americans become Americans.  That's just gibberish.  That's just a statement that indicates that Old Joe's brains are scrambled.  It's a very good indicator that this is not a guy whose finger should be on the nuclear trigger.

With the mainstream media turning on him and Old Joe continuing to act like someone in the early stages of Alzheimers, there's no way this guy will ever be elected president.

Riddle

Here's a riddle for you:

What cost $12 million for nothing?

Answer:  Tom Steyer's presidential campaign.

It's amazing.  Billionaire Tom Steyer has spent $12 million and he has yet to gain any support in the polls.  He was shut out of the upcoming debates.  He has no meaningful endorsements.  His campaign so far has been a total failure.

Wasting twelve million dollars really won't change Steyer's life at all.  Still, for those who claim that money is everything in politics, this should be a cautionary tale.  You still can win with a poor candidate.

C'mon Yahoo

The anti-Trump campaign at Yahoo Fake News is moving ahead with today's attack being that Trump is a tax raiser.  According to Yahoo, if all the tariffs against China actually go into effect, Trump will have raised taxes.  It's an untrue story based upon erroneous "facts"  Yahoo says Trump will be the first Republican since Bush to raise taxes.  Of course, Trump is the first Republican since Bush, period, but for Yahoo, that doesn't seem to matter.

Let's start with the facts: 

First of all the total cost of the tax cuts passed in Trump's first year is $1.5 trillion according to multiple articles published by, yes-you guessed it, Yahoo News.  That number is too high because it doesn't count the growth in the economy due to the tax cuts, but it's the number Yahoo always uses.

Second, if all the tariffs on China go into effect, the total will not exceed $200 billion.  That means Yahoo is wrong when it says that the tariffs will outweigh the tax cuts.  It's not even close, but that doesn't stop Yahoo.

Third, a big chunk of the tariffs are being paid for by China, not Americans.  Many Chinese exporters are swallowing the tariffs in order to keep their American customers.  China, itself, is manipulating its currency to prevent the tariffs from raising prices for Chinese goods in America.  Chinese consumers, however, will have to pay much higher prices for imports and Chinese factories will have to pay higher prices for raw materials.  That's another way of saying that China and its people will be absorbing the tariffs for the most part.  If Trump imposes a tax on China through the tariffs, it's a lot different than raising taxes on Americans.

So we have a story that makes a claim that isn't even close to being true.  More Fake News from Yahoo Fake News.  It's a disgrace.

Here We Go Again

The first hurricane of the year to threaten the USA mainland is charging towards Florida.  Hurricane Dorian is likely to hit on Monday as a category 3 or 4 storm.  That's bad, but it says nothing about climate change.  The USA has been hit with major storms for as long as there has been a USA and before.  Of course, to the media and the professional climate crazies, that doesn't matter.  There's a storm coming so it must be global warming.  If there were a drought, it would be global warming.  If it rained heavily, it would be global warming.  If there were no storms, it would be global warming.  No matter what the weather, it's always due to global warming.

It's not mentioned anymore, but from 2005 to 2017 the USA went 12 years without getting hit with a major hurricane.  That was the longest stretch without such a hurricane in recorded history.  Prior to that, we had all been told that global warming would mean more frequent and stronger storms.  When there were no storms for a record period of time, however, the story changed, but not the reason.  The new line was that global warming would mean FEWER major storms.  In other words, the facts changed, but the explanation stayed the same.

Global warming/climate change has become a religion rather than a scientific theory.  No matter what the observations, the theory must be protected at all costs.  All we ever get is that Global warming works in mysterious ways.  In the 1990's, the USA put weather satellites into orbit that used instruments to get precise temperature data for the lower atmosphere.  After 2000, the data from these satellites showed no warming.  Fifteen years later there was still no warming.  The Global Warming crowd said that didn't matter; we had to look at surface data.  In 2004, the government weather service NOAA started keeping track of surface temperatures at literally hundreds of sites that were placed so that they would be unaffected by nearby activities.  The fifteen year data from this system was just released and it shows NO WARMING.  So both the atmosphere and the surface show no warming.  A real scientist would look at the data and conclude that all the computer models on which all global warming theory is based are incorrect.  Any theory that predicts one thing combined with observations that show the opposite cannot be correct.  But it doesn't matter for the devotees of climate change.  They BELIEVE that carbon dioxide will warm the atmosphere; they don't want to be bothered with facts.

So now we will get yet another dose of "there's a hurricane, so it must be global warming." 

Without a doubt, the earth has warmed a bit since the early 19th century when a three century cold period ended.  Most of the warming came before any possible effect from carbon dioxide levels.  We don't know what caused the warming.  It's not a difficult issue to understand.  Just look at the facts.  

Beto BS

It’s amazing to hear Beto O Rourke try to salvage his losing campaign. Today’s subject is trade. Beto says he will end all the trade sanctions put in place by the President against China. He then says he will seek other enforcement measures from world organizations. Of course Beto doesn’t mention what those other measure are. It a plan to go back to all talk and no action. It’s basically a plan for surrender 

The Usual Response

In the UK, Prime Minister Johnson moved to "suspend" Parliament and then to use up a bit of time with a speech by the Queen followed by debate.  The media is outraged that Johnson would make such a move.  How predictable!

What actually happened is this:  Johnson took over recently from Theresa May as prime minister.  By British tradition, a new prime minister's term begins with the Queen delivering a speech to Parliament in which the new government's plans are outlined.  That is followed by five days of mandatory debate.  This is nothing new; it has been this way for at least a century.  What Johnson has done, however, is to lengthen the recess of Parliament by two weeks so that the next session will be the Queen's speech.  The effect of this is that for the next six weeks, the opposition won't be able to act to try to stop Brexit.  Oh, the horror!  Of course, during half that time, Parliament was scheduled to be in recess anyway.

Of course, since the liberal media in Britain is thoroughly opposed to Brexit, they don't like any action which reduces the chance for it to be stopped.  As a result, they are attacking Johnson in much the same manner that American media attacks Trump.  In other words, they are using gross exaggerations and even lies to try to blacken his name.  The funny thing is that Britain finally has a PM who is willing to use his powers to try to get the measures he supports achieved.  Good for him.

OK -- Explain This

I won't go into the nitty - gritty details, but according to just released data from NOAA, there has been no warming in the USA since 2005.  And it's not that there was warming previously to that date; it's just that the special system set up by the government weather service to measure surface temperatures without distortion only began getting data in 2005.  The records from other sources that show warming all depend on "adjustments" made by the data collectors to account for what are supposed distortions in the data.  Back in the early 2000's, NOAA set up a system which could collect data without any distortions so that there would be no need for "adjustments".  That's the data that shows NO warming.

There's a good summary of this bit of news at Powerline. 

Think about this for a moment and what it means.  If there's no warming, then there's no need to end the use of fossil fuels, no need for a Green New Deal that fights non-existent warming, and no need for all the climate alarmism being pushed endlessly by the Democrats in their campaigns and in their governing.  Imagine what New York's state government has done by preventing drilling for natural gas and construction of pipelines in the state.  Billions and billions of dollars of income for New Yorkers from natural gas production has been lost.  Economic development has been choked due to inability to get new fuel hookups for residences and businesses.  And it has all been done to fight warming THAT ISN'T HAPPENING!!!!!!!  If this is correct, even New York voters should dump the bozos like governor Cuomo and put in a government that cares about real issues like jobs and economic development.  

Gillibrand and The Surprise Move

I know the media covers for Democrats, but this is ridiculous. NBC called senator Gillibrand dropping out of the Democrat race for 2020 a “surprise”.  She didn’t make the debates and had no money but it’s a surprise. NBC did mention that her campaign was “hampered “ by a lack of money and public support.   Amazing!

One wonders if NBC reported on a Nederland if they would say the victim was hampered by a gunshot to the head. 

"thinly sourced" Say Twitter

I wasn't going to comment on the Fake News pushed by Lawrence O'Donnell on MSNBC, but now I have to do so.  Lawrence breathlessly announced on his show that he had a source who told him that Deutsche Bank had tax returns for President Trump that showed he had paid no taxes for many years among other things.  It's not worth going through all that Lawrence said, because it isn't true.  In fact, by the end of the show, Lawrence obviously had gotten push back and was forced to admit that his story hadn't been fully checked out.  Now it turns out that Lawrence never saw the documents in question.  In fact, his source has never seen those documents.  It's now pretty clear that the documents don't contain any of the President's tax returns.  That means that none of Lawrence's story about the documents is true.  It's totally fake news.

So why am I compelled to write about this?  Lawrence was trending on Twitter, and the geniuses at that platform summarized the reason he was trending as his need to "comment" on a "thinly sourced" story he had on his show last night.  Twitter just couldn't bring itself to discuss the need for Lawrence to "retract" and apologize for the story which had turned out to be totally false.  If I were to post that aliens from Venus had landed and taken control of the UK, would Twitter call that thinly sourced if I had no source?  That's what they did with Lawrence.

An Update For Fairness

Yesterday, I wrote about the national poll which put Old Joe Biden in third place among Democrats.  Today, another poll of Democrats was released.  This one gave Old Joe a lead of 13 points over Angry Bernie and of 18 points over Lying Liz Warren.  Both polls were taken at the same time.

So what does this mean?  Clearly, one or both of the polls must be wrong.  We have no way of knowing yet which one is closer to reality.

My bet is that Old Joe's support will continue to slip.  We'll have to wait and see.

The Results of the G-7

The G-7 meetings in France are over.  Was anything accomplished?  If you listen to the media, the answer is NO.  The Democrats agree, although Old Joe Biden can't even seem to remember what the meeting was; he keeps calling it the G-8.  But what's the reality?  Here's what happened.

1.  The biggest news at the G-7 was the announcement that Japan and the USA had agreed in principle on a new trade deal.  There are minor details still being worked out, but both sides expect to sign a final agreement by the end of September.  The deal includes massive new purchases by Japan of American agricultural products.  Japan has the third largest economy in the world; a trade agreement between the largest economy (the USA) and Japan is a very big deal.  The new agreement settles items that have been in dispute for decades between Japan and the USA>

2.  It is also clear that there was little or no pressure on the USA to move away from the confrontation with China over trade.  Prior to the meeting, the same people who now say little was accomplished kept telling us that the rest of the world would pressure President Trump into changing America's China policy.  As usual, they were wrong.  Indeed, it was quite clear that Japan is very happy with our China policy.  The other five leaders really said nothing.  They are all in weak positions.  Italy doesn't even have a prime minister.  Macron, in France, is on his way out.  His popularity is so low he is unlikely to run for re-election.  Angela Merkel is a lame duck in Germany.  Trudeau is also likely to lose the next Canadian election.  Only Boris Johnson in the UK is not clearly going, but he has to deal with Brexit and that may do him in by the end of next month.

3.  On all the issues of the day, the supposed opposition to the US positions never materialized.

So, overall, the constant commentary prior to the meeting was wrong.  There was no opposition to America.  It was a cordial meeting without confrontation.  That's a good thing and an accomplishment in and of itself.  Throw in the bonus of the trade deal with Japan, and the G-7 was a success for the USA. 

The Biden Campaign Crumbles

The impact of the non-stop mistakes by Old Joe Biden has taken its toll on his campaign.  The living gaffe machine has fallen to third place in the latest national poll of Democrat voters for the 2020 presidential campaign.  Both Angry Bernie and Lying Liz have pulled up to 20% while Old Joe has dropped to 19%.  The individual numbers don't really matter at this point.  What does matter is that Old Joe used to be 15-20 points ahead but now he's 1 point behind.  There really has been no good news for Biden for a long time.  Instead, most of the coverage of his campaign has been focused on his mistakes which seem to indicate the onset of senility.  Okay, maybe that's too harsh, but it still is pretty clear that Old Joe is just not as sharp as he used to be (and he was never that sharp to begin with.)  Old Joe's lackluster debate performances also didn't do anything to help his support levels.  The truth is that there's nothing that is pushing support to Biden and a constant flow of things that is pushing support away from Biden.

For his part, Angry Bernie is also riding on the past.  He hasn't been making the kind of obvious mistakes like those which have hit Old Joe.  Still, Angry Bernie also hasn't done much to bring in new supporters to his cause.  For the most part, Americans don't want to see a president who looks like he's yelling at the neighbor's kids to get off his lawn.

Elizabeth Warren, on the other hand, has helped herself lately.  She's stuck to policy for the most part.  Gone are the days of her Cherokee past when her supposed high cheek bones outweighed her DNA in her bogus attempts to prove her Native American heritage.  The truth is that most people now accept the fact that Lying Liz told both Penn and Harvard that she was a Native American in order to get a lucrative teaching position at the law schools there.  While most people care about this, there are enough who don't that Liz has moved into a tie for first in this latest poll.  Of course, Lying Liz continues on with her lies.  In the recent past, she lied by claiming that a black man had been murdered by police in Missouri.  That case had been reviewed by a local investigation, a state investigation and a federal investigation by the Obama Justice department.  All three concluded that the man who had been killed had rushed the police officer and attacked him.  The shooting was self-defense.  Those investigations and the facts they revealed do not matter to Lying Liz, however.  She wants to talk about a black man shot by a white police officer, so she just lies about it.  As Liz continues to spew lies, her support will dwindle once again.

What seems unique about these three leaders of the Democrat race is that none of them is particularly likable.  The doddering grandpa, the angry old guy or the shrill liar are not people one wants to spend time with.  President Trump may be hated by a large percentage of the population, but it isn't a majority.  For the rest of the public, he is an engaging, funny and interesting guy.  None of the Dems can come close to him on that score.  

What About The Obvious Answer?

The University of Connecticut is facing a large deficit for the next year, and it's all due to unfunded pension liabilities.  This unfunded pension liability seems to be the pervasive disease infecting all of Connecticut's governmental entities.  As a result, UCONN is going to raise tuition again and try to lay off some staff.

The amazing thing is that it seems as if no one at UCONN or in state government has proposed changing to a defined contribution pension plan.  That's the sort of plan that is used by more than 90% of private companies and even the majority of governments.  In one move, the problem of soaring pension costs would go away.  We would still need to deal with underfunded past liabilities, but the problem would stop getting worse.

This is not a complicated matter.  It's the obvious answer to a terrible and ongoing problem.  If the Democrats who control all of the state government were not so beholden to the state employee unions, we might see a sensible solution.  If things continue on their present course, however, all we will see is future disaster.

The Trade Deal With Japan

Earlier today, I wrote about the possibility of where the trade disputes with China were going.  Then, just now, things changed greatly as President Trump and Prime Minister Abe of Japan announced agreement in principle on a trade pact between the two nations.  The full details have not yet been released, and there are still some small details being ironed out, but the US/Japan pact should be signed by the end of September.  One item the pact changes is that Japan is going to buy huge amounts of American farm products.  This will take up the slack created by the Chinese in their recent tariff imposition.  In other words, the pact with Japan will obliterate much of the effect of the Chinese action.  As I said earlier today, the market for agricultural products will redirect American goods to other buyers.

This US pact with Japan is very bad news for China and very good news for the USA and Japan.

What Happens If There's No Deal With China?

The tariff wars are raging between the USA and China.  Supposedly, this is all leading to a deal with the Chinese.  But what if it doesn't; what happens then?  The people who trade using computers on the stock market have decided that it will be a disaster for the world economy.  That doesn't mean they are correct, however.  Remember, those same computers drove the stock futures down nearly 1000 points on election night in 2016; these traders were sure that Trump's victory would bring bad times for the economy.  Of course, by the next day, the people began voting with their investing dollars.  We've seen one of the greatest runs of all time in the markets, rather than the collapse.

But back to China; what happens if there's no deal.  Indeed, what happens if Chinese goods get hit with 100% tariffs in the USA and American goods get hit with the same in reverse.  Add in that the US market gets closed to Chinese products from companies that produce strategic goods like those for 5G phone systems.  What happens then?

The simple answer is that American business will be hurt, so will American farmers and energy producers who sell to China.  The damage to the farmers and energy producers will be temporary since those markets will simply redistribute the production to other consumers.  The loss of the Chinese market, however, will impact those American companies which export to China on an ongoing basis.  Meanwhile, however, the companies that produce goods in China for export to the USA will be hit as well.  But here's the main point:  China sells the USA something like 600 billion dollars more goods each year than the USA sells to China.  When you take out items like energy and food, the difference is even larger.  If the US economy loses 0.8% of its production, it will slow economic growth.  On the other hand, if China loses 3or 4% of its production, it will face a recession.  Further, if factories leave China in order to be able to keep the US market, the impact could be even larger.  Add in that the cost of food and energy in China would rise if the imports from the USA are lost, and the impact on the Chinese market is major.  In other words, the trade war could give the US market a minor cold, but it would inflict pneumonia on the Chinese economy.

The real question is whether or not the leaders of China are prepared to push that country into a recession in order to fight with Washington.  My guess is that ultimately they won't do that.

UPDATE:  I got some push back on this post from those who tell me that China may just wait for a year and a half in the hope that President Trump loses and a Democrat comes in who goes back to the old way of dealing with China (by doing nothing to stop its trade violations.)  That could be, but President Xi understands that such a course would bring really bad results if Trump is re-elected.  I don't think China will want to depend on predicting the election outcome.

Another Busy Day For Iran And Its Allies

It has been a busy day in the Middle East, especially for the forces of Iran and its allies.  Just after midnight, Israeli forces struck a large number of targets in Syria where the Shiite militias controlled by Iran were preparing to launch a drone attack on Israel.  The drones were to drop explosives across Israeli civilian targets.  The Israeli attack neutralized that effort which had been monitored for months by Israeli intelligence.  The Assad regime said that it shot down the Israeli missiles, but that claim was belied by the many reports of explosions at the military depots operated by the militias.  Of course, the Assad regime is not known for its honesty.

Meanwhile, in Beirut, the main broadcasting studios of Hezbollah, the terrorists controlled by Iran were blown up.  The Lebanese said that it was an Israeli drone attack, but that is unconfirmed.  Given that the attack took place in the early morning hours when the studio was not in use, it does seem likely that it was an Israeli attack rather than a rival Arab group (who would have more likely struck when the studio was full of people.)

In Iraq, another militia base being used to assemble and ship missiles by Iran to Hezbollah was attacked and destroyed.  The local Shiite/Iranian leader blamed the explosion on an Israeli drone being operated with the cooperation of the US forces in Iraq.  That claim was denied by the Pentagon spokesman.

It's not clear what has happened in each of these cases.  It is clear, however, that this has been a bad day on many fronts for Iran and its lackeys.

Bill Maher and Other Scum

Last night I did something I haven't done for a long, long time; I turned on Bill Maher's show on HBO.  I wanted to see if Maher would have something to say about the call by Rashida Tlaib to boycott his show.  Maher, you see, had criticized Tlaib and her whole misbegotten episode of dealing with her planned trip to Israel.  I last something like three minutes before I turned Maher off.  In that time, Maher spoke about the death of David Koch.  He used his comments to castigate Koch, cheer his death and hope that his final days were filled with pain.  It was typical angry leftist political BS that was supposed to be funny.  After all, Maher styles himself a humorist.  It wasn't funny; it was just disgusting. 

David Koch was a libertarian; he was not a progressive.  I get that.  Koch, however, donated something more than a billion dollars for hospitals, health research and other medical needs.  With that, he did more good than Bill Maher could even comprehend.  Just because Maher didn't like his politics is no reason to kick him after he is dead.

Bill Maher is a disgusting excuse for a human being (and I'm holding back.)

Justice Ginsburg Has Cancer Treatment

Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg had radiation treatment for a malignant tumor on her pancreas in the last two months.  According to the Supreme Court, no further treatment is warranted at this time.

The media is busy spinning that Justice Ginsburg has beaten cancer again, but that seems highly unlikely.  Pancreatic cancer is one of the worst forms of that disease, and this is a recurrence of a cancer for which she was treated about a decade ago.  It's hard to tell whether this just bad news for the justice or really bad news.

We wish her well. 

The Palestinian Prayer For Peace

In the last week, there's been an uproar over Palestinian rights that started with the proposed visit to the area by Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar and others in a trip sponsored by an organization that supports terrorism.  Israel refused the group entry because by law it is not to admit those who are seeking to promote a boycott against the Jewish state.  That led Tlaib to ask if she could come on a private visit to see her grandmother; she also promised that she would not advocate for a boycott while in Israel.  To her obvious surprise, Israel said ok to her request, so she quickly withdrew the request and denounced the Israelis for keeping her from her grandmother.

When many Democrats started denouncing the Israelis for keeping Tlaib from her grandmother and denouncing Trump because he's Trump, the President responded by pointing out that American Jews who still support the Democrats are either uninformed or do not care about Israel.  This led to more scream from the Dems and for renewed charges that Trump is an anti-Semite.  The Dems, however, said nothing about the actual anti-Semites Tlaib and Omar who spread hatred every day.  All we hear from the Dems is that the Palestinians are victims who only want peace.

Yesterday, Palestinian president Abbas made another pitch for the peace that the Palestinians want.  Speaking near Ramallah, President Abbas said that he wanted over a million Palestinians to swarm Jerusalem and to destroy every building constructed there by Jews.  He called for the Jews to be placed on the "garbage heap of history".  Then he went on to discuss the practice of the Palestinian Authority to pay pensions to those who commit terrorist attacks and their families.  Abbas said that these terrorists are martyrs and that the Palestinian Authority would never stop paying pensions to the terrorists and their families.

That is what the Palestinians actually say.  There is no prayer for peace with Israel.  There is only non-stop threats of mass murder and destruction while at the same time there is glorification of those terrorists who attack civilians including old folks and young children.

What Tlaib and Omar say is pure lies, just propaganda designed to mislead those who pay little attention into falsely believing that the Palestinians actually want peace on some basis other than the destruction of Israel and all its Jewish citizens.  And in the face of this terrible truth, the Democrats are still supporting Tlaib and Omar and doing nothing to stop the vile anti-Semitism in their midst.

It turns out that Trump was right with regard to what he said about Jews in America supporting Democrats.

Back To Iran

A few days ago, I wrote some posts about the escalation of the confrontation with Iran in the Middle East.  I got responses from readers who told me that I was writing "a novel" and being an alarmist.  Here's an update for those who think that I exaggerated the situation.

The New York Times is reporting that the recent blasts at bases of Shiite militias in Iraq (yes, IRAQ!!) were the result of Israeli air strikes on those bases.  The militia bases struck by the blasts were being used to house missiles being shipped by Iranian forces to Syria.  These were intermediate range missiles that could be fired from Syria into Israel and hit nearly every part of that country.

I have no idea if the Times report is correct.  Certainly, the New York Times is no fan of the Israeli government or of accuracy in journalism.  Nevertheless, if we assume that the story is accurate, then that means that Israeli air force planes left Israel, flew hundreds of miles across Jordan and Iraq, hit bases in a country that is not actively confronting Israel, and bombed bases there.  That is an extraordinary escalation by Israel.  The last (and only other) time that Israeli planes hit any target in Iraq was in the 1980s when the Israeli air force took out the Iraqi nuclear weapons facility in that country.

Events are moving towards a major confrontation with Iran in the region.  That is true whether or not readers like to believe it.

Old Joe's Fight Against Economic Growth

Old Joe Biden is at it again.  His latest economic policy position is one designed to slow economic growth across the USA.  Biden wants to double the tax rate on capital gains by pushing that rate to the highest level since World War II.  It's a position that shows that managing the nation's economy is well beyond the capabilities of Old Joe.

Think about it.  The single most important item for encouraging economic growth is increasing the level of investment.  Investment leads to long term improvement.  For example, an extra 100 million dollars in consumption by consumers gives a one-time shot in the arm in the economy, but the same 100 million dollars invested in a new factory provides ongoing output for years to come as well as many new jobs for employees.  It turns the 100 million from a one-time event into one that provides benefits for years and years.

Capital gains is the tax on investments.  Raising the taxes on investments reduce the potential return and it will mean that America will have less investments.  That means less economic growth.  Biden is trying to bring back the economic stagnation of the Obama years.

Raising the capital gains tax means that it will just be that much harder for people who have little to become wealthy.  Start a business and be successful and the government will take away half of what you build if Biden gets his way. For people like Biden and many Democrats who are already wealthy, it wouldn't matter that much.  For the bulk of people who are not wealthy, however, Biden is pushing something that would just close off the potential path to wealth.  It shows an amazing lack of concern for the future opportunity of America's poor and middle class.  The Democrats truly are the party of the wealthy and the very poor.

I Wonder How Much That Cost

In the Strange News of the Day category, there's a poll of Democrats in Nevada released today in which New York Mayor Bill DeBlasio got 2% of the vote.  That's by far his highest score to date in any poll.  Normally, he comes in at less than 1%.  For example, in the recent poll at the Iowa State Fair, Mayor Bill got less than one tenth of one percent of the vote.  That's less than one vote out of every thousand voters.

I guess there are a lot of former New Yorkers in Nevada who look on the mayor of their old town an get nostalgic.  Either than, or there is a lot of money changing hands to affect the poll results.

DeBlasio is a joke.  He's not even in the top five finishers in the polling in his own state.  Yesterday, he fired the policemen who was investigated in connection with the choke hold death of Eric Garner.  The policeman was investigated in four separate investigations and was cleared in each one.  Good old Billy DeBlasio, however, decided that even though the cop followed the departmental rules, he needed to be fired to satisfy the mob.  It's rather sad.

I guess it's good that DeBlasio is running for President.  At least it keeps him out of New York.

A New Low

There has been a spate of articles recently which seem to be pushing the US economy towards a recession.  We get columns that claim to be "economic analysis" that tell us how the economy is teetering on the edge of the cliff of recession.  The problem with those articles, of course, is that the statistics don't support that view.  We get horror stories of all the damage that the so called trade war is doing to American companies and consumers, except here too there is little to support this view.  Now we are getting people on the left who are actually calling for a recession as a way to try to defeat President Trump's re-election.  It's a new low for the anti-Trump left, and that is truly saying something major.

When Trump was falsely attacked for collusion with Russia, it was low and dishonest, but at least it was directed at Trump.  The same is true of the constant phony claims that Trump is a racist.  Those claims of racism do damage the fabric of our society by making some people believe that racism is more prevalent than is the actual case.  Pushing the economy towards recession, however, is different.  That's a tactic that will result in real damage to a great many people.  Democrats claim that they are for the little people, the common man.  It is exactly these people who will get hit the worst by a recession, however.  In short, the Democrats latest strategy to defeat Trump seems designed to attack those who they claim to support in hope that the resulting pain will be blamed on Trump rather than on them.  It's an idiotic strategy, but it is also a mean and disgusting one.  It's hard for me to believe that anyone who recognizes this strategy by the Dems could ever vote for them again. 

What Does This Mean? -- Nothing Much

The AP is out with a story under screaming headlines that say "74% of all Economists in Survey See US Recession by the End of 2021."  That means a disaster is coming, right?  Actually, WRONG!

It is two and a half years until the end of 2021.  It has been ten years since the end of the last recession.  Over the last 100 years, the US economy has gone into recession on average once every 5.4 years.  If you look at the last 150 years, the recessions came even more frequently.  That means we are already overdue for a recession.  Any economist who knows anything about economic history knows that a recession is due.  After all, it's called the "business cycle" because the economy moves in cycles of growth and contraction ( or recession).  If anything, the surprise should be that 26% of economists in the survey did NOT see a recession by the end of 2021.  That's a big vote of confidence in current economic strength.

So why is the AP making such a big deal about this survey of economists?  (and by the way which economists did they survey -- AP doesn't tell us.)  The answer is that the AP is trying to make our strong economy look weak in the hopes of hastening a recession and maybe, just maybe, hurting President Trump's chances for re-election.

It would be nice if the AP would put this discussion into context by explaining the business cycle and the normal frequency of recessions.  That isn't going to happen, though.

Reparations? To Whom and For What?

I noticed an uptick lately in the number of articles being written on the subject of the payment of reparations to African Americans for the "legacy" of slavery.  It's a rather silly idea, but as of now it seems to be taken quite seriously by the major Democrat candidates.  The idea is that after 80 years of slavery being legal in the USA, the descendants of those enslaved are owed reparations from the government.

This raises all sorts of questions.

1.  Who gets paid reparations?  Is it only African Americans?  There were slaves who were not black prior to the civil war.  The numbers were small, but should that matter?

What about African Americans whose ancestors came here after the end of slavery?  Should the children of immigrants who came to the USA from Haiti in 1964 qualify for payments?  Neither the children nor their parents are descended from slaves; do they get money?

What about mixed race people?  Barack Obama is descended, for example, from a family that included slave owners on his mother's side and from an African who never really lived much in the USA on the other side.  Is he barred from getting reparations?  If he gets them, does he have to pay them to himself to atone for his mother's family history?

If only some mixed race people get reparations, will there be a test to determine who gets cash?  How will that be done?

2.  Who pays the reparations?

Will there be a special tax paid to fund these reparations?  Under what reasoning would people whose families came here after the end of slavery pay towards reparations.  For example, my ancestors only got to the USA in the period between 1900 and 1920.  Should I have to pay for the reparations?

What if someone has one great great grandparent who was here in 1860 but none of the others were?  Should that person who is one-eighth descended from someone here during slavery have to pay for the reparations?  Does he or she get a 7/8 discount?  What if that great-great-grandparent was a soldier in the Union army during the Civil War who lost his life in the fight against slavery?  Should that soldier's descendants pay reparations?

3.  Why are reparations appropriate more than 150 years after the end of slavery?  No one from that era or their children are still alive.  Can't the past be the past?

If these reparations are appropriate, should there be other reparations set up?  Should Catholics have to pay reparations to Muslims because of the Crusades?  Should Muslims have to pay reparations to Catholics because of the Muslim conquest of many Christian areas in the eighth through the elevenths centuries?  Should Britain have to pay reparations to the USA because of mistreatment of colonists prior to American independence?

The reality is that these questions make clear just how idiotic an idea reparations truly are.  People should spend their time trying to improve their own lives without blaming others for their shortcomings.

It seems pretty clear to me.  Any candidate who seriously pushes for reparations is going to lose.

Iran's Next Move -- Update

Just after I wrote the post about Iran's next move, the news broke that the Houthi rebels in Yemen launched a drone attack on a major Saudi oil field.  The attack did no real damage and no one was injured or killed.  This is another move by the Iranians.  The Houthi are the local group in Yemen that is totally supported by Iran subservient to Iran.  An attack like this would not take place without the blessing of Iran.

This is not the first attack of this sort, and it will likely not be the last.  It's just another move by Iran in a way that hits its enemies while maintaining the fiction that Iran is not involved.

Hopefully, the attack will focus the attention of policy makers in DC.

What Is Iran's Next Move?

We've seen tanker bombings and seizures, the downing of drones, the supply of missiles to Hezbollah, and many other moves by Iran in the last year.  None of the Iranian moves were aimed at peace; all was done to achieve maximum confrontation.  The question that remains is what will the mullahs in Teheran do next.

Let's start with Iran's current situation.  It is still a signatory to the JCPOA, the agreement regarding its nuclear program.  The USA withdrew from that agreement over a year ago, but the Europeans, Japanese and Russians remain participants.  Despite the requirements of the JCPOA, however, Iran has violated the maximum levels of uranium enrichment allowed by that agreement.  This is not some intelligence estimate; it is confirmed by statements by the Iranians themselves.  Iran is now closer to having nuclear weapons than ever.

At the same time, however, Iran is suffering from the effect of American sanctions.  The new sanctions imposed by the Trump administration have been severely hurting Iran.  Its oil production has fallen and it is now facing difficulties selling even that reduced production on the world market.  In the near term, oil revenues are likely to collapse by 25-50%, something that would remove the basic financial underpinning of the Islamic regime.  There has been domestic unrest although that seems to have died out as of now.  The regime knows, though, that there is great domestic dissatisfaction with the current government that could reappear quickly if the conditions warrant it.  Iran is facing a difficult future.

The Iranian response has not been to seek a new agreement with Washington.  Instead, Iran has opted to increase tensions through moves that have some measure of deniability but which are obviously Iranian controlled.  The mullahs hope that facing a possible war, President Trump and the USA will back away from confrontation.  So far, that has not been the case except that Trump did cancel a retaliatory air strike on an Iranian base after one of these Iranian provocations.  The President understands that right now time is not on the Iranians' side; the noose of sanctions is tightening.

Iran seems to be aiming towards attacking Israel as its next move.  The Israelis have formed a defacto alliance with the Sunni Arab countries that surround Iran.  That alliance is basically anti-Iran.  Saudi Arabia is still nominally an enemy of Israel, but their commonality of interest in confronting Iran has moved reality far in the other direction.  It is this alliance that seems to be Iran's target.

The Iranians have been building bases in southern Syria for Hezbollah, a proxy force of mostly Lebanese Shiites that is under total Iranian control.  Iran has been smuggling weapons to Hezbollah as well as to the terrorists of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.  Hamas had been negotiating cease fire agreements with Israel, but lately it has moved back towards armed confrontation.  Just yesterday, five heavily armed Hamas fighters were detected trying to infiltrate into Israel from Gaza.  Israeli troops confronted them and the terrorists were killed in the resulting firefight.  Hamas has also resumed firing periodic missiles into southern Israel from Gaza.

The fear is that at some point soon, Iran will direct its proxy forces to unleash a full scale attack on Israel.  Given the tens of thousands of missiles Iran has sent to Hamas and Hezbollah, there is no way that the Israeli missile defenses will be able to shoot all of them down.  There will almost assuredly be casualties and damage across much of Israel.  That will force the Israeli government -- no matter who is prime minister -- to launch attacks to erase the threat.  Gaza will be reoccupied and house to house searches will destroy the missiles.  There will certainly be many casualties.  Southern portions of Lebanon and Syria will be occupied as well.  Again, there will be heavy casualties.  And make no mistake about it; these casualties are the goal of the Iranians.  They want to be able to point to the Saudis and say that they are allied with Israel which is busy killing Muslims in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.  Iran wants to use the deaths in the fighting to drive a wedge between Israel and its new Sunni Arab allies.

Of course, it is not just the Iranians who are planning for the future.  Israel and the USA also can make plans and take actions.  It well may be that the Israelis will launch air attacks on Iranian nuclear installations and destroy them.  These attacks could come from airbases in Saudi Arabia just across the Persian Gulf from Iran.  Launching from those bases would put the Iranian nuclear sites in easy reach of the Israeli planes.  Of course, it would be denied that the attacks came from Saudi Arabia, but the Saudis would like nothing better than to see the threat of Iranian nukes erased.

The USA may also decide that given the actions of the Iranian naval forces towards tankers in the Straits of Hormuz, there should be a naval blockade against Iran.  All Iranian vessels would be warned that they cannot set sail into the Persian Gulf on pain of being boarded or sunk.  This would cripple what is left of the Iranian oil trade.  It would also leave Iran with the choice of either compliance or war.  And that would be a war that Iran would not want to face.  Of course, the Iranian response might also include launching the attack on Israel discussed above.  We could see a wider war in the Middle East. 

There are other players in the region who also would have plans that need to be considered.  Russia is the main actor in that regard.  Were the USA and Iran to face off, the Russians might speak on the side of the Iranians, but it is highly doubtful that the Russians would want to get involved in any fighting.  They might, however, "sell" military supplies to Iran.  An Israeli attack into Syria, however, could actually bring the Russians into the fight.  After all, the Assad regime is Russia's client in the region and they would not want to see that beleaguered government battered further.  Still, I have to believe that Russia would agree to some sort of limits placed on the Israeli attack for which they would then stand aside.  Russia's main goal is to keep its bases in Latakia and elsewhere in Syria.  A full scale war could lead to the loss of those bases should the fighting not go well.  Indeed, Putin might seek and get some major concessions from the Israelis in exchange for Russia staying out of the battle, and that is much more Putin's style.

All of the above is just speculation.  Still, the question as to what Iran will do next is a critical one.  Hopefully, as the administration moves forward pondering what to do in the region, there can be some measure of unity within Congress and the government about how to proceed.  The situation is far too dangerous right now to be kept as yet another political football.  For once, it might be nice to see a situation in which the needs of the nation overcome the irrational hatred of the President by the Democrats.

Craziness on Display

I was just watching some video of a confrontation between a large Antifa group and a man and a young girl in Portland.  The man was wearing a shirt that said "I hate the left and I hate racism."  I assume that he was part of the demonstration by the Proud Boys.  The girl looked to be about ten and she was walking with him; I assume he is her father.  There were about thirty Antifa people menacing the two.

It was crazy.  There is no reason for confrontations like this to take place in America.  Hate has no place here.  That includes hate from the right and hate from the left.  What troubled me even more was that as the Antifa thugs crowded around the father and daughter, there were no police stepping in.  There were a great many media cameras filming the scene, however.  As things got to the boiling point, more cameramen rushed in to get the scene.  No one said a word for the people to stop.  No one tried to separate the Antifa people from their target.  They just watched and filmed.

Let me be clear.  I don't support the Proud Boys.  In truth, I really don't know what they stand for.  I don't support Antifa either.  I have seen Antifa launch all sorts of attacks against people who are doing them no harm and not threatening them in any way, however.

As Americans we have to denounce violence as political expression.  NOTHING JUSTIFIES VIOLENCE.  NOTHING!

This has to stop.

Warren Peace?

With the recent bump for Elizabeth Warren in the polls of Democrats, it’s worth taking a moment to look at Warren’s views on foreign affairs. After all the president has nearly total control of that area. So what do we know here?  How would Warren change from Trump?

First of all, Warren does not like the military. She wants to cut the budget there to use the funds elsewhere. At least that’s what she says.

Second, Warren is not concerned about terrorism. She has said that many of the security measures in place are nothing but Islamophobia. There’s no word on how she would deal with any attacks beyond that

Third, Warren is against confronting China on trade or anything else. She thinks negotiations with no threat of consequences is the way to go. It’s a nice word for surrender.

Fourth, Warren also does not want to confront Russia and its aggressive behavior. Again she’s a  supporter of talk but no action.

Fifth, Warren is not a friend of Israel. She wants to go back to Obama’s fantasy that the Palestinians need make no commitment to peace. She also wants to restore the Iran agreement which gives Iran money and guarantees it nuclear weapons

Sixth, Warren opposes the USMCA agreement. The main reason seems to be because it was negotiated by Trump. She also wants to stop talking to North Korea mainly because that’s what Trump is doing.

There’s much more but none of it’s good. It seems pretty clear that Warren would be a disaster.   

So Wait....Is Rashida Going Or Not

In what seems like a strange bout of schizophrenia, congresswoman Rashida Tlaib has announced that she isn't going to Israel after all.  The last few days have been like watching a tennis match.

First, Tlaib and some others were going to what she called "Palestine" (since she doesn't recognize the existence of Israel).  The announced purpose of her trip was to promote the BDS Movement which seeks to destroy Israel by means of economic boycotts.

Next, Israel announced that it would not grant Tlaib a visa to enter the country because Israeli law prohibits granting entry to anyone seeking to promote a boycott.

That decision by the Israelis to follow their own law was met by a batch of outrage from the mainstream media and some Democrats who called the decision racist (which it isn't.)

Tlaib then wrote a letter to the Israeli government asking for permission to enter the country so that she could visit her grandmother who lives there.  Tlaib promised that she would not promote any boycotts while there.

The Israelis granted Tlaib's request.

Almost immediately after Israel granted her request, Tlaib announced that she would not visit Israel.  A valid question at that point would be "then why did you ask?"  The answer, of course, is that Tlaib didn't really want to see her grandmother; she just wanted to use the old woman so she could castigate the Israelis for keeping her from her family.

Who knows what will happen next.  Maybe Iran will invite Tlaib to come to Teheran for a visit and she'll go.

Biden Does It Again

A big news story yesterday was that Israel had decided to deny entry to two Democrat congresswomen who are strong opponents of the Jewish state.  Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota had scheduled a trip to "Palestine" (since they don't recognize the right of Israel to exist) in order to promote the anti-Israel BDS movement.  BDS seeks to boycott Israel and Israeli goods in order to undermine and destroy that country.  (Today, Israel agreed to let Tlaib into the country to visit her grandmother after she agreed not to promote any boycott while she was there.)

Old Joe Biden managed quickly to stick his foot in his mouth once again in commenting about the two congresswoman.  He released a statement which read in part:

I have always been a stalwart supporter of Israel—a vital partner that shares our democratic values. No democracy should deny entry to visitors based on the content of their ideas—even ideas they strongly object to. And no leader of the free world should encourage them to do so.


This is a rather funny position for Old Joe to take since in 2012, the Obama administration refused entry to Michael Ben-Ari, a member of the Israeli Knesset because of the content of his ideas.  That makes Ben-Ari the Israeli equivalent of an American congressman.  Old Joe, of course, was a part of the Obama administration and he uses that fact as the main basis for his candidacy.

I guess when you get as old as Old Joe you have problems with your memory.

A Tale of Three Candidates

I watched a bit of President Trump's rally tonight in New Hampshire.  It was Trump's usual performance.  He had the crowd energized and enraptured.  He was informative an also humorous.  He was straightforward and interesting.  He went on and on and it was all a riff on his themes; he wasn't reading a prepared text.  Watching it, I couldn't help but think of two other news stories today about leading Democrat candidates.  First, Joe Biden's staff is floating the idea that Biden should cut way back on his campaigning and limit himself to events early in the day.  The idea is that Biden needs more rest than he has been getting in order to avoid more gaffes.  Also, Biden does better in the morning before he gets tired in the afternoon and evening.  Trump holds a masterful rally without gaffes, and Biden has to limit himself in order to try to reduce mistakes.  It's quite the contrast.

Then there's the coverage of Elizabeth Warren's rally today in New Hampshire.  The headlines say she had a massive rally.  In the text of the article, one finds that she had a few more than 500 people attend.  Trump drew about 25,000 people.  That's 50 people at the Trump rally for each one at the Warren rally, but the media call her rally "massive".  It's just more Fake News.

Gun Control And Philadelphia

Last night we saw six policemen shot in Philadelphia during a confrontation with a drug pusher.  The media and Democrats like Kamala Harris and Kirsten Gillibrand immediately announced that the failure of gun control legislation was a cause of this violence.  That, of course, turned out to be wrong.  The shooter turned out to be a felon with a long list of convictions including multiple convictions for gun crimes.  Under Pennsylvania law, this guy was already barred from owning or possessing any firearms.  The weapons he used last night were all illegal.

So here's the point:  the laws that Harris and Gillibrand were pushing already bar the criminal who shot the police from owning a gun.  Those laws didn't work.  Why would any reasonable person think that more such laws would lead to a different result.  Criminals aren't deterred by gun control laws.

The Corruption Of The Legal System

Over at Powerline, there is an article about an amazing bit of corruption of the legal system that is being pushed by the "green" movement.  It seems that an anti-fossil fuel group funded by former NY mayor Michael Bloomberg has been embedding lawyers in the offices of sympathetic state attorneys general for the purpose of attacking large oil companies for "causing" global warming.  These lawyers are nominally employed by the attorney general, but they are paid for in whole by the Bloomberg group and take their orders from that group.

Think about this.  Basically, when the state attorney general takes a legal position, he or she does so on behalf of the citizens of a state.  The attorney general has the ability to sue people or companies that an individual would not be able to.  The scheme in use in states like Minnesota is giving a private group the ability to use the power of the AG office even though that power is supposed to be reserved for the people's business.  Think of it this way:  suppose the federal government let a group use the resources of the Department of Justice including the FBI and all the rest to push a private agenda.  Let's say that President Trump agreed that the NRA could use the DOJ to pursue those who want gun control.  The media and millions of people would be beside themselves in anger, and rightly so.  That's exactly what is happening with this Bloomberg group.  They are being allowed to use the powers of the state attorney general in various states to attack oil companies supposedly on behalf of the state, even though that is just a sham.

A lawsuit was started this week to uncover more information about what has happened in Minnesota.  If the facts are as stated above, the entire scheme is highly illegal. 

The legal system is supposed to dispense equal justice for all.  It is not supposed to be weaponized for political purposes.  Schemes like this one must be stopped.

Look at This Painting Allegedly Found in Jeffrey Epstein's House -- Bill Clinton in a Blue Dress

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Yield Curves and Recessions

The stock market was way down today mainly because of fears generated by the inverted yield curve.  Basically, this means that short term interest rates on US treasury securities are higher than long term rates.  It's an aberration of the treasury market that happens from time to time.  Over the last 50 years, it has happened nine times.  That depends somewhat on the definition that gets used; a two day inversion is not the same as a five month inversion.  In any event, seven out of the nine yield curve inversions were followed by a recession in 12-18 months.  As a result, it is an article of faith among some market strategists and economists that an inverted yield curve means a coming recession.  The panic in the market today was basically fear of an impending recession.

The reality, however, is that there is no way to know that a recession is coming.  Long term interest rates are being kept down because many safe investments around the world are now paying negative returns.  German government bonds, for instance, return a negative half percent on a ten year bond.  You buy the bond for 100, but after getting no interest for ten years, you get back 99.5.  It is no wonder that European investors, in particular, are moving to treasuries.  Getting a return of 1.6% per year is a lot better than buying a German bond which guarantees that you will lose money over the ten years.

Negative rates on government bonds are not something that has been around over the last 50 years.  All those other yield curve inversions came when there were no negative rates elsewhere pushing the long term treasury rates down.  As a result, the yield curve inversion may not be a sign of recession or even of bad news for the US economy.

The financial media and the mainstream media will make a big deal out of today's decline.  It is a big deal; we don't have declines like this very often.  Still, we cannot state that we are facing a recession based only upon the inverted yield curve.  Indeed, the signs do not point to a recession at the moment.  The biggest problem is that media driven hysteria is more of a danger to the economy than almost anything else right now.

News That No One Cares About

I often highlight news stories that don't get covered.  Here's one about an upcoming event that no one in their right mind could possibly care about.  Tomorrow, Beto O'Rourke is going to deliver his first major policy speech of the 2020 campaign.  I'm so excited by this that I can barely stay away.

This address, announced by Beto's campaign, is part of the reboot of that campaign announced a few days ago.  It does give rise to some questions though:

1.  The guy has been running for president for more than three months.  How did he go that long without addressing policy?  Is he that vapid? (clearly the answer is yes.)

2.  Since the address won't get media coverage, what's the point?  At the start of the campaign, Beto was a media darling.  He could have delivered policy speeches and gotten coverage.  Now, he would be unlikely to get much coverage no matter what he says.  America has had enough.  They've seen and heard Beto and almost unanimously said "no way!"

It's time for Beto to say "Bye Bye."

A Big Development in Polling

It's way too early to view the many polls of Democrats regarding their 2020 candidate as indicating any final outcome for the race, but there are still important bits of news that one can glean from these polls.  Today, there's a big development that deserves mention.  In the latest poll from New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders is leading Old Joe Biden.  That's the first poll, either national or state, in which Biden has not been the leader in a long time.  Biden is only polling at 15%.

Clearly, this doesn't mean that Biden has lost New Hampshire.  It does mean, though, that Democrats in NH are not flocking to support the former VP in his quest for the nomination.  Those poor debate performances and the endless gaffes are having an effect.  If this effect starts showing up in other polls, we could see Biden's campaign collapse.  To a great extent, Biden has done well because he is seen as the inevitable choice best situated to beat the President.  Were that inevitability to be shaken, Biden would have to win on his merits.  That is very unlikely to happen.

News Nobody Covers

It's worth taking a look at a story from the Middle East that has gotten no mention in the mainstream media.  Yesterday, four heavily armed men tried to get through the border barriers between Gaza and Israel.  The four men had rocket propelled grenades, machine guns, and bombs that could have been used in major terror attacks inside Israel.  All four were members of Hamas.  Fortunately, the men were detected by Israeli troops guarding the border.  The four made it through the border fence at which point they were seen by the Israelis.  They were told to surrender, but they opened fire on Israeli forces.  The return fire was intense and all four of the Hamas terrorists were killed.  No Israelis were hurt.

The mainstream media don't seem to want to cover an attempt by Hamas to pull off a major terror attack inside Israel.  Of course, were they to cover this story, the media would no doubt find a way either to blame President Trump for what happened or else try to explain how four heavily armed men who snuck through the border barrier and opened fire when confronted were actually victims.

A Smart Move In Hong Kong

The protesters in Hong Kong have made a very smart move.  After weeks of escalating confrontations with the police, there has been a change of tactics.  Today, thousands of protesters went to the Hong Kong airport and filled the place to overflowing.  The congestion was so great that flights into and out of the busy airport were canceled.  No one was hurt (at least so far).  Nothing was destroyed (again, at least so far.)  Air travel, however, which is an essential part of commerce in the city, came to a halt.  The police cannot just arrest everyone at the airport, though, because there are still a great many passengers at the airport who are totally innocent.  The Chinese government may decide to take everyone in anyway, but this will be a major black mark on that government with tens of thousands of foreign travelers.  To the extent that there are still those visiting Hong Kong as tourists, this should stop much of the remaining traffic.  Even business travelers will reduce their visits or avoid the area completely.

Without a doubt, the Chinese will have some counter-measure in place in the near term.  Until then, however, this is a major move by the protesters.

The government of President Xi must be supremely concerned.  News of the events in Hong Kong cannot be kept from a large swath of the Chinese people.  If the protests were to spread to cities like Shanghai or Beijing, it could threaten the control of the Communist Party.  That is unlikely, but it is an existential concern for Xi and his party.  It is not a threat that will be taken lightly.  For decades, the Chinese have had no freedom but they have gotten rapid economic growth in its place.  Now that rapid economic growth has halted and the trade disputes with the USA make a recovery less likely.  It's another reason why the Chinese government should want a resolution with the USA sooner rather than leter.

Oh NO, I Missed It

About five days ago, an event happened which transformed the Democrat's contest for the 2020 nomination.  Former senator Mike Gravel of Alaska dropped out of the race.  The eighty-six year old Gravel then endorsed that youngster Bernie Sanders.

Just think what this means:

1.  Sanders and Biden are now the official geezers in the race.  No one running is older.  Of course, Biden probably couldn't remember that anyone older was running when Gravel was still in the race.

2.  Alaska no longer has a favorite son who could attempt to dominate the crucial Alaska constest.  That really puts those delegates up for grabs.  Okay, they already were up for grabs, but it's still fun to say this.

3.  Gravel's 16 supporters are now left wondering who to back.  What a touch decision.  Maybe they can back Seth Moulton the congressman from MA.  He should drop out soon, so that would give them time to ponder the other candidates.

Gravel is the unlikeliest political candidate I've seen since the old guy who ran for mayor of New York City a few years back on The Rent Is Too Damn High party.  I just wonder how this guy was ever elected to the senate, even in Alaska.