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Sunday, February 2, 2020

Let's Not Overlook Brexit

On Friday, the UK left the European Union.  Normally, a victory of this sort for our close ally would merit major news coverage.  It was hardly mentioned in the mainstream media.  They were too busy covering the impeachment circus.  Nevertheless, we should not overlook Brexit and what it means not just for Britain, but for the world.

Here are a few of the most important points about Brexit:

1.  It was a great victory for democracy.  In the original Brexit referendum, the Brits voted by a significant majority to leave the EU.  It was mostly a victory for a popular coalition over the entrenched elites in London who wanted to stay in the EU.  Almost from the moment the result was announced, the entrenched elites began to try to undermine the result and to prevent Britain from leaving.  These forces managed for years to delay the departure, and they almost got to the point at which there was going to be a second referendum.  The last British elections, however, were fought mostly about Brexit.  Johnson and the Tories argued that the people had spoken and the Parliament had to follow their decision.  In district after district where Brexit had won in the referendum the Tories swept to power.  A great many of these were districts that were historically Labour supporters.  The Tories won in one district that hadn't voted anything but Labour since 1932.  They won in another district that hadn't had a Tory hold the seat since the 19th century.  These were the people who felt totally disrespected by those who opposed Brexit.  We will have to see how long this realignment in British politics continues.

2.  It should be very good for the UK's economy.  For the longest time, Britain has been subjected to more and more regulation decided by the EU in Brussels.  These regs did much to stultify economic growth.  It was just harder and harder for businesses in the UK to just comply with all the rules.  British natural resources were put under controls that pushed the resulting benefit to people across the continent.  We still have to see just how much freer businesses will be to operate in the UK.  If Johnson goes back to a system like that pushed by Margaret Thatcher decades ago before the pervasive regulation from Brussels, it should unleash the UK economy to start to grow at a much faster pace in much the same way that the removal of needless regulation in the USA has energized the US economy under Trump. 

3.  Brexit should also be a good thing for the USA.  Sometime in the next year or so, there ought to be the conclusion of a US/UK trade agreement.  Most likely, this agreement will give the Brits better entry to the US market than is currently available to companies from the EU.  It should also give American companies better access to the British markets.  From strictly a British perspective, this agreement will tie the UK more closely to the rapidly growing USA economy and move it farther away from the stagnant European economy.

Congratulations to the UK on Brexit!

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