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Sunday, October 22, 2017

Is It The Usual?

Yesterday, Syrian regime forces were firing at opponents near the Israeli territory on the Golan Heights.  Five separate missiles landed in Israeli territory although, fortunately, no one was hurt.  In response, Israeli forces took out the positions from which the five missiles had been fired.  This response is in keeping with stated Israeli policy that it will not tolerate any shots fired into its territory from Syria (or elsewhere).  It's not an unusual exchange; there have been a number of similar events over the last few months.

What is unusual is that there were five missiles that hit Israel rather than just one.  It makes me wonder if the Assad regime and its Iranian buddies are testing the Israelis or seeking a reason to start an attack on the Israelis in that area.  After all, it was just a few days ago that the Assad forces fired anti-aircraft missiles at Israeli planes that were outside Syrian airspace.  Could this be the start of a move against the USA and its allies in Syria now that ISIS is on its last legs.  Imagine that Syria, Hezbollah and Iran launch an attack against the Israelis at the same time that the same group launches an attack against the Kurdish and moderate Sunni forces inside Syria.  Those are America's allies in the fight against ISIS in Syria.  Is Assad trying to tie the USA to Israel so as to put a wedge between America and its allies inside Syria? 

If this is a strategic move by Assad and his allies, it seems a strange one.  There is no doubt that Hezbollah has nearly 100,000 missiles in Lebanon which are aimed at Israel.  If they were fired at the Israelis, there would likely be substantial death and destruction.  Nevertheless, it would also lead to an Israeli move into Southern Lebanon and the smashing of many Hezbollah installations.  More than likely, the Israelis could also move across the Golan Heights towards Damascus.  The Syrian forces are weak after more than five years of civil war and would be no match for the Israeli forces.  In many respects, an attack by Syria on Israel seems like a suicide mission right now.  Most likely, these missile attacks are just more inaccurate fire from the haphazard Assad forces in Syria.  Still, no one can ever be sure that the Assad forces will behave in a rational manner.

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