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Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Sure Sounds Like Trump

Yesterday's big news in the Middle East came as the forces in Syria allied with the USA captured that nation's largest oil field from ISIS.  The al-Omar oil field in Deir al-Zour province was taken with little damage done to the oil production facilities there.  The loss of the field means the end of the biggest single financial asset that ISIS had.  But this is more than just a blow to ISIS.  The oil field was taken as the forces of Assad and his Iranian allies were just about 5 miles from that field.  The American allied forces came, in a surprise move, from about 50 miles away over an arid landscape with a surprise attack on the field.  Now the question is whether or not the Kurds and Sunni Arabs who are holding the field will, in turn, be attacked by the Assad/Iran forces and, in the event of such an attack, will the USA support its allies in such a battle.

There is also a race between the Assad and the US-backed forces to take the towns along the main road between Iraq and western Syria.  If the US-backed forces take these towns, it will prevent Iran from having a clear convoy route to Damascus.

This strategy sounds a great deal like one approved by President Trump.  For years, he has spoken about how America should have "taken the oil" during the Iraq War.  The President understands the strategic benefit that a huge oil field confers on its holder.

Hopefully, uncertainty as to the US reaction will prevent the Assad/Iranian forces from launching any attacks on this oil field or on the forces allied with the USA.  The Iranians ought to fear that if they do hit our allies that they might also hit American special operators who are embedded in those allied forces.  Such a move might lead to direct armed conflict between the Iranians and the USA, something that would not end well for Iran. 

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