There's a special election in two days in the 18th congressional district of Pennsylvania. This is the southwest corner of the Keystone State, and it is an area that supported Donald Trump in 2016. Although there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in the district, it has been represented by a member of the GOP for the last 16 years. The Democrats are salivating at the prospect of winning this seat and embarrassing the President by doing so. The polls show the Republican, Saccone, slightly ahead of the Democrat, Lamb, but there is at least one that shows the Democrat ahead. So what should we make of all this?
The outcome in Pennsylvania will be decided by one thing and one thing only: turnout. Without question, there are many Democrats who are motivated by their opposition to anything and everything Trump. They will vote. There will also be the people who vote in every election no matter if it is regular or special, presidential or off-year. Then there are the people who came out to vote for Trump in 2016 but who normally do not vote especially in off-year or special elections. The deciding question in the district will be how many of this last group turns out to vote for Saccone.
The President held a rally in the district last night to promote Saccone's candidacy. He got a large turnout and the speech was carried on all the cable news networks. In 2016, though, a rally in the area by Trump got a larger turnout. Other White House and national Republican figures have been campaigning for Saccone as well. Will that be enough to bring a victory to Saccone?
There's one thing that may help push Saccone over the finish line to victory. This district has been home to many coal mines and steel mills. President Trump has already taken actions to try to help the coal industry, and this week he announced tariffs on steel that should help the steel mills as well. Already, the owner of one steel mill in Ohio has announced that the mill will reopen and bring back 1000 jobs. There is no doubt that this move must have been extremely popular in the district. Will this bring people to the polls? We will know on Tuesday.
My prediction is that Saccone will win with something like 54% of the vote. Undoubtedly CNN will call this a defeat for the Republicans because the victory margin will be less than Trump's in 2016, but that is silly. After all, the Democrat in this race, Lamb, does not have all the defects that Hillary Clinton had in 2016. There will be no real anti-Lamb vote while there was a huge anti-Clinton vote. I realize that my prediction is just an educated guess. Anything can happen. Tuesday evening should be interesting, for sure.
The outcome in Pennsylvania will be decided by one thing and one thing only: turnout. Without question, there are many Democrats who are motivated by their opposition to anything and everything Trump. They will vote. There will also be the people who vote in every election no matter if it is regular or special, presidential or off-year. Then there are the people who came out to vote for Trump in 2016 but who normally do not vote especially in off-year or special elections. The deciding question in the district will be how many of this last group turns out to vote for Saccone.
The President held a rally in the district last night to promote Saccone's candidacy. He got a large turnout and the speech was carried on all the cable news networks. In 2016, though, a rally in the area by Trump got a larger turnout. Other White House and national Republican figures have been campaigning for Saccone as well. Will that be enough to bring a victory to Saccone?
There's one thing that may help push Saccone over the finish line to victory. This district has been home to many coal mines and steel mills. President Trump has already taken actions to try to help the coal industry, and this week he announced tariffs on steel that should help the steel mills as well. Already, the owner of one steel mill in Ohio has announced that the mill will reopen and bring back 1000 jobs. There is no doubt that this move must have been extremely popular in the district. Will this bring people to the polls? We will know on Tuesday.
My prediction is that Saccone will win with something like 54% of the vote. Undoubtedly CNN will call this a defeat for the Republicans because the victory margin will be less than Trump's in 2016, but that is silly. After all, the Democrat in this race, Lamb, does not have all the defects that Hillary Clinton had in 2016. There will be no real anti-Lamb vote while there was a huge anti-Clinton vote. I realize that my prediction is just an educated guess. Anything can happen. Tuesday evening should be interesting, for sure.
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