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Saturday, April 16, 2011

A different way to look at the problem with entitlements

At the moment, the impending bankruptcy of Medicare, Social Security and the other entitlement programs is front and center in the national debate. Some say we are spending too much; others claim the cause is that taxes are too low. Here is another way to look at the issue.

The main reason that programs for the elderly like Social Security and Medicare are going under is that there are simply too few workers paying into the system to be able to afford the cost of the increasing numbers of those over 65. In the 1930's when Social Security began, there were over 40 workers for each retiree drawing benefits. soon, those numbers will be two workers for each retiree. What caused this shift?

The simple answer is that the avalanche of abortions that occured after the Roe V. Wade decision in 1973 legalizing abortion has changed the age distribution of the American population. According to government statistics, there have been about 50 million abortions in the USA since 1973. That means at least 50 million fewer people at least. The children of those who were aborted would probably lift that number to something in the area of 75 million or more. There would also be about another 25 million folks in the workforce, each of whom would be paying taxes for both Social Security and Medicare. In short, there would be enough additional workers paying into the system, that the current crisis could have been avoided.

Now, obviously, if abortion were not legal, there would still have been a fair number of illegal abortions. Indeed, prior to the Roe decision, some states like New York had relaxed the requirements for abortion, so there would still have been a growing number of legal abortions. The enormous onslaught of abortions following the 1973 decision would have been avoided, however. There is no way to know the precise number of additional workers who would be in the workforce today but for the Roe decision. It is, however, undeniable that the number would necessarily be over ten million and maybe as high as twenty million. With either number, the tax payments into Social Security and Medicare would be substantially higher, and the prospects for future payments would also point towards a much greater increase than the current number.

Strangely, the big "victory" by the liberals on their cherished "right" of abortion laid the groundwork for the demise of the big government social programs that depended on a growing populaiton for solvency.

2 comments:

hotpanera said...

Social Security is not at risk of impending bankruptcy. I believe if nothing is done it can pay full benefits as they currently exist, including expected COLAS, for about another 25 years.

Your abortion theory is interesting and certainly part of the explanation. Another important part is the greatly longer life expectancy today, compared to when the program started. That can't be ignored.

Jeff said...

If you say that Social Security is not at risk of bankruptcy, then you have been taken in by the propaganda. All those dollars that are supposedly in the social security trust fund were spent long ago. Social security is now a pay as you go program; that means that as the tax revenues fall below the payments to receipients (which is already happening), the system sinks towards failure. It can be propped up for a while, but in a few years, it will go under.