The Syrian Enigma

The last few days saw the issuance of a joint op-ed column by the presidents of France, the UK and the USA calling for the end of the Gaddafi regime in Libya. NATO is still bombing the Gaddafi forces. Sanctions are crippling the Libyan regime. Although Gaddafi is holding on, he and his government are certainly under siege.

At the same time, nothing is being done with regard to Syria. We hear today that the Druse communities have joined in the demonstrations against Bashir Assad and the Baath regime. Despite claims by the regime that it would release demonstrators who had been taken into custody, there have been only 9 people released out of the thousands arrested. Now we are hearing that Asad has moved Alawaite units into the front lines against the demonstrators. the Alawaites are Assads own ethnic group, a group that has received many special privileges in Syria during the decades of rule by the Assad family. There are undercover Alawaite soldiers who are claimed to be infiltrating the crowds of demonstrators and killing people at random in order to terrorize the crowds and disperse the demonstrations. Hundreds are said to have dies, although no one knows for sure due to the news blackout from Syria.

Syria is the closest ally that Iran has among the predominantly Sunni Arab countries of the Middle East. It is Syria that has enabled the arming of Hezbollah in Lebanon, thereby giving Iran a Shiite proxy army on the border with Israel. Syria is also the country whose secret nuclear bomb facilities were taken out by the Israelis less than two years ago. Syria was also the source for most of the infiltration of fighters into Iraq to fight US soldiers during that war. Simply put, Syria is no friend either of the USA or of peace.

The reaction from Obama to all of this has been puzzling. The USA has called Assad a reformer and said nothing about his leaving. Obama and Clinton seem to want to prop up this despot and enemy. Gaddafi was condemned because he was killing his own people. Now, Assad is doing the same thing, but Obama is silent.

As the various countries in the middle east move through this cycle of uprisings, there are points where a well placed push from the USA might actually topple the dictators. There was just such a point in Libya when the first wave of protests came close to throwing out Gaddafi. At that point, the US sat by silently and let Gaddafi regain his balance. By the time Obama finally got off his rear end and did something, the task was a much harder one. Indeed, Obama's failure to act has left the USA in a position where it may be thwarted in its effort to remove Gaddafi. Right now,however, Syria is at the point where Assad's power could crumble. there are ripples of discontent in the army. All of the communities in the country aside from Assad's favored group of Alawaites are protesting his rule. A push to encourage the rest of the army to rebel might well end the murderous rule of the Assads. But there is only silence from Washington.

At some time, Obama has to learn that the goal of American foreign policy ought to be doing what will further the national interests of the USA. Were Assad to fall, look at the consequences: 1)Hezzbollah would be cut off from its Iranian arms supplier. That would leave the Lebanese free to move forward with their own future rather than the one that Iran dictates to them. It would also lessen the likelihood that Hezbollah would start another war or even carry out terrorist attacks. 2)Syria would be removed from the ranks of allies of Iran. that means that chances of Iranian hegemony in the Middle East would be reduced dramatically. The historic emnity between the Sunnis who are the majority in Syria and the Shia who rule in Iran would come to the fore again. 3) The chance for peace between Syria and Israel would increase dramatically. Obviously, there is no guarantee that there would be peace achieved. There is, however, a guarantee that there will be no peace while Assad is in office.

It is important to remember that the Assad regime in Syria is the one government in the world that has used chemical weapons against its own people. About 20 years ago, there was an uprising in the city of Homa and the Assad regime (the headed by Bashir Assad's father) order the gassing of the entire city. Tens of thousands died. Yet, this is the regime that Obama does not find sufficiently objectinoable to oppose.