Since the new session of congress began last month, there have been a great number of articles written about the likely effect of the 2012 election on the behavior of the senators up for re-election at that time. Supposedly, Democrats from red states were going to move towards the center and away from the policies of the last two years. With the vote on Obamacare yesterday, this theory got its first test. The theory was a flop. Each Democrat voted against repeal of Obamacare. So senator McCaskill whose state of Missouri voted 70% in a referendum for repeal and who is up in 2012 voted to keep Obamacare in place.
The next test will come with the continuing resolution to fund the government after the start of March. The House is likely to pass a resolution approving continued spending at only 2008 levels. When the measure comes before the Senate, the Democrats up for re-election will be able to demagogue the issue and talk about how the GOP wants to hurt the poor, but these senators will nevertheless actually have to vote on the spending cuts. If the senators vote to keep spending at its current elevated level, it will be very difficult for any of these folks to run as fiscal conservatives or centrists in 2012. My guess is that we will see at least one or two of the Dems support lowered spending.
In truth, my guess is that Harry Reid will put forth a bill that spedicifically cuts things like head start, food stamps, unemployment benefits and other parts of the safety net. That will put the GOP in an uncomfortable position as well.
Hopefully, when all the posturing and politics is over, there will be a move towards cutting spending in a responsible fashion.
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