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Friday, October 6, 2017

The Jobs Report

The government issued the employment report this morning.  The headlines are that unemployment went down to 4.2% but there were 33,000 fewer jobs in the economy.  Those two numbers don't go together at all, but they come from two different surveys.  The real truth, however, is that the report is meaningless.  The surveys were taken just as Florida was being battered by a major hurricane and just after East Texas was hit by another hurricane.  As a result, the numbers for those large areas were severely distorted in many ways; the numbers should revert to being closer to normal next month.

A good example of the disruption caused by the hurricanes is that over 100,000 fewer people were employed in restaurants and tourism.  That's a reflection of the temporary mess in Florida.

We will have to wait until next month to see if where employment is actually heading.

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