A spokesman for the Palestinian Authority and its leader Mahmoud Abbas made a statement today slamming US efforts to bring peace in the region. In particular Saeb Erekat said that America was trying to separate Gaza from the West Bank and to bring down the PA. According to Erekat, this effort is the intention of American requests to its Arab allies to fund infrastructure projects in Gaza and to provide help to resettle Palestinian refugees outside of the UNWRA group through which the UN pays monthly stipends to the descendants of the refugees from 1948 fighting. What this actually means is that Abbas is finally getting nervous that he and his people will be shoved aside in a move towards peace.
Let's look at this a bit more closely.
1. During the Obama years, the USA never did anything that might upset the Palestinian Authority or Abbas. Obama considered Abbas the medium through which peace would be achieved so the president leaned on the Israelis to accommodate Abbas' desires. As a result, Obama put the USA firmly in opposition to Israeli homes being built on any land that was held by the Arabs prior to 1967. Obama also treated the Israeli leadership with disdain and interfered in the Israeli elections trying to defeat prime minister Netanyahu. (Maybe that's were the Russians got the idea to try to interfere in the US elections in 2016).
2. After Trump took office, American policy changed. The USA stopped following the fictions put forward by Abbas and began dealing with the realities on the ground. Trump moved the US embassy to Jerusalem. Jerusalem has been Israel's capital since 1948, but now America stopped pretending that wasn't the case. The President also ended the oppressive opposition by the USA to Israeli "settlements" even if those supposed settlements were in places like the historic "Jewish Quarter" of the old city of Jerusalem. The USA still opposes major expansion of new settlements, but those that exist already can build new homes for the natural population increase. President Trump also stopped giving American money to the UN agency UNWRA which morphed from a refugee relief group to one designed to provide monthly payments to the Arab refugees of 1948 and their descendants forever. It's time for those refugees to be integrated into the societies of the countries where they live. In each case, the desires of Abbas and his group to maintain the fictions that guided the world for decades were ignored. The actual reality won out. The US is also cutting off payments to the PA for so long as that group continues to pay pensions to those who commit terrorist acts and their families.
3. Trump also sided with Israel when the Hamas terrorists organized attacks against the border fence around Gaza but called it a "protest". In fact, nearly the entire world sided with Israel on that issue as they followed the US lead on the response.
4. As a result of US action, Abbas lost all his power to control events in the region. He could no longer determine the capital of Israel, the pension payments to "refugees", or the construction of so called settlements.
5. Then the US applied the coup de grace. American envoys came to the region to discuss peace and, after Abbas said he wouldn't meet with them, continued to discuss a peace plan with the other principal parties. Jared Kushner and the US special negotiator have met with the leaders of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel, among others. Serious discussions about how to bring about peace are ongoing. Abbas is frozen out and no one seems to care.
None of this means that Abbas is no longer of any importance. That would not be a correct view. it does mean, however, that Abbas now understands that he has lost the power that the rest of the world had given him as the "partner" for peace. The world is working towards peace with or without Abbas. Abbas now has a choice: he can become irrelevant and fade away or he can actually participate in a meaningful fashion in peace efforts.
There is, of course, a third alternative. Abbas could launch another uprising against Israel and gin up a major new wave of terrorism. Israel has gotten pretty adept at stopping the terrorist attacks, but there still could be a great many with many casualties. My guess, however, is that were Abbas to launch that sort of uprising, he would quickly be met by a strong counter response directly against Abbas himself. I doubt Abbas would chance that. He no longer has any champion to protect him from that response.
Only time will tell if there is any serious path to peace that can be achieved. For the first time in years, however, there is a real chance that this is possible.
Let's look at this a bit more closely.
1. During the Obama years, the USA never did anything that might upset the Palestinian Authority or Abbas. Obama considered Abbas the medium through which peace would be achieved so the president leaned on the Israelis to accommodate Abbas' desires. As a result, Obama put the USA firmly in opposition to Israeli homes being built on any land that was held by the Arabs prior to 1967. Obama also treated the Israeli leadership with disdain and interfered in the Israeli elections trying to defeat prime minister Netanyahu. (Maybe that's were the Russians got the idea to try to interfere in the US elections in 2016).
2. After Trump took office, American policy changed. The USA stopped following the fictions put forward by Abbas and began dealing with the realities on the ground. Trump moved the US embassy to Jerusalem. Jerusalem has been Israel's capital since 1948, but now America stopped pretending that wasn't the case. The President also ended the oppressive opposition by the USA to Israeli "settlements" even if those supposed settlements were in places like the historic "Jewish Quarter" of the old city of Jerusalem. The USA still opposes major expansion of new settlements, but those that exist already can build new homes for the natural population increase. President Trump also stopped giving American money to the UN agency UNWRA which morphed from a refugee relief group to one designed to provide monthly payments to the Arab refugees of 1948 and their descendants forever. It's time for those refugees to be integrated into the societies of the countries where they live. In each case, the desires of Abbas and his group to maintain the fictions that guided the world for decades were ignored. The actual reality won out. The US is also cutting off payments to the PA for so long as that group continues to pay pensions to those who commit terrorist acts and their families.
3. Trump also sided with Israel when the Hamas terrorists organized attacks against the border fence around Gaza but called it a "protest". In fact, nearly the entire world sided with Israel on that issue as they followed the US lead on the response.
4. As a result of US action, Abbas lost all his power to control events in the region. He could no longer determine the capital of Israel, the pension payments to "refugees", or the construction of so called settlements.
5. Then the US applied the coup de grace. American envoys came to the region to discuss peace and, after Abbas said he wouldn't meet with them, continued to discuss a peace plan with the other principal parties. Jared Kushner and the US special negotiator have met with the leaders of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel, among others. Serious discussions about how to bring about peace are ongoing. Abbas is frozen out and no one seems to care.
None of this means that Abbas is no longer of any importance. That would not be a correct view. it does mean, however, that Abbas now understands that he has lost the power that the rest of the world had given him as the "partner" for peace. The world is working towards peace with or without Abbas. Abbas now has a choice: he can become irrelevant and fade away or he can actually participate in a meaningful fashion in peace efforts.
There is, of course, a third alternative. Abbas could launch another uprising against Israel and gin up a major new wave of terrorism. Israel has gotten pretty adept at stopping the terrorist attacks, but there still could be a great many with many casualties. My guess, however, is that were Abbas to launch that sort of uprising, he would quickly be met by a strong counter response directly against Abbas himself. I doubt Abbas would chance that. He no longer has any champion to protect him from that response.
Only time will tell if there is any serious path to peace that can be achieved. For the first time in years, however, there is a real chance that this is possible.
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