It's pretty funny. CBS is out with their first so-called "battleground tracker" poll for the November elections for the House. CBS says that this poll is much better than those generic congressional polls that only provide a percentage for those who would vote for the D or the R were it election day today. Then CBS goes on to say that if the election were today, the Democrats would win 219 seats in Congress plus or minus 9 seats. The GOP would get 216 seats plus or minus 9. The supposedly wonderful expanded methodology says it could go either way as of now.
The funny thing about the CBS results is that they just mirror what the generic polls report. Hidden in the CBS poll is the question used in the generic congressional polls. That question gives results in which the Democrats have a 5% lead over the GOP. The generally accepted view of this polling is that a 5% lead for the Democrats in this question means that either party could win the House; it is a toss-up.
Even funnier, however, is the fact that polls taken more recently show that the GOP has moved up by a few percentage points in the generic tallies. Plugging that into the CBS model would, no doubt, result in a prediction that the GOP will keep the House. CBS stays silent on that one.
The only actual reality when it comes to polls is this: it is way too early for the polls to indicate anything other than that neither party has locked up a victory in the House next November. The Democrats had surged to a clear lead six months ago, but that lead has now been blown. Right now, the momentum is with the GOP, but who knows what will happen in the next few months?
The funny thing about the CBS results is that they just mirror what the generic polls report. Hidden in the CBS poll is the question used in the generic congressional polls. That question gives results in which the Democrats have a 5% lead over the GOP. The generally accepted view of this polling is that a 5% lead for the Democrats in this question means that either party could win the House; it is a toss-up.
Even funnier, however, is the fact that polls taken more recently show that the GOP has moved up by a few percentage points in the generic tallies. Plugging that into the CBS model would, no doubt, result in a prediction that the GOP will keep the House. CBS stays silent on that one.
The only actual reality when it comes to polls is this: it is way too early for the polls to indicate anything other than that neither party has locked up a victory in the House next November. The Democrats had surged to a clear lead six months ago, but that lead has now been blown. Right now, the momentum is with the GOP, but who knows what will happen in the next few months?
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