There must be a fair amount of panic in Teheran with regard to Syria.
A short while ago, the Iranian forces in Syria decided to strike at Israel in the hope of inflicting some real damage on the Israelis and perhaps even getting them to stop their periodic attacks on Iranian weapons transfers to Hezbollah. The Iranians and their allies launched 32 missiles at Israeli positions in the Golan Height, the Israeli controlled region just over the border from Syria. The Iranians kept the targeting to that small area because they did not want to take the risk of inciting major retaliation from Israel had major population centers been targeted. It didn't work. Not a single one of the 32 missiles hit its target. Five were shot down. Twenty-seven fell short of the mark and landed inside Syria itself.
On top of the failure of the Iranian missile attack, the response from the Israelis was immediate and severe. Israeli planes launched attacks on about 60% of all the Iranian installations in Syria with major damage being done to the Iranian military infrastructure. All Israeli planes returned safely. The Russians did not use their anti-aircraft systems to interfere with the Israeli strikes. In one night, Iran's Syrian power was severely curtailed.
Now, things are getting worse for the mullahs in Teheran. Reports say that Israel, Jordan, Russia and the Assad regime in Syria have agreed that Iranian forces and their Hezbollah terrorist supporters will be pulled back at least about 40 miles from the border with Israel. The border crossing from Jordan to Syria will be put into the hands of the Assad forces and all Iranians will also be removed from that region. Russia has given the Israeli air force its consent for the Israelis to continue to strike at the Iranians if necessary provided that Israel does not hit the Assad forces or Russian forces. Meanwhile the main border crossing between Iraq and Syria will remain in the hands of the Syrian Democratic forces and American troops. No Iranians will be allowed there either. The Iranian sphere of influence inside Syria is shrinking rapidly.
There are even reports that the Assad regime has agreed with the Russians that all Iranian and Hezbollah forces must be withdrawn from Syria. We will have to see that actually happen to believe it, but if it occurs, it will be a major disaster for the Iranians.
Even inside Iraq, there appears to be bad news for the Iranians. The party that led the recent elections in Iraq is Shiite, like the Iranians, but it is also Arab and nationalistic rather than supportive of the Iranian government.
On top of all this, the Iranians are facing an onslaught from the USA in the form of renewed sanctions with the withdrawal by President Trump of US participation in the Iranian nuke deal.
In other words, it has been a really terrible month or two for the Iranians.
This is a major reversal of where Iran was at the end of the Obama years. Obama's policy towards Iran was to not confront the mullahs but rather to try to encourage better relations and to remove irritants in the hope of bringing Iran into the peaceful nations of the world. It was a naïve and fruitless policy, but Obama followed it from start to finish. As a result, Iran got a major foothold in Iraq and an even stronger base of operations in Syria. There was talk of an Iranian crescent across the Middle East with the Iranians in charge in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon (through Hezbollah).
In recent days, the Israelis have made clear to the Russians that Israel will not tolerate an Iranian presence on their border. The Russians don't care much about the Iranians, but they want to preserve their bases and influence inside Syria. The Russians also want to preserve good relations with Israel. As a result, Moscow was rather quick to agree that the Iranians have to go.
At the same time, American foreign policy has been to push towards ousting Iran from Syria. It seems most likely that the USA has told the Russians that so long as the Iranians leave Syria, the USA won't push to get the Russians out of there as well. That would be a major bonus for the Russians if they cooperate to get the Iranians out.
There's no way to know for certain what the future holds for Syria. One thing, though, is certain: there will be a brighter future for Syria and all its people if the Iranians are no longer there inciting violence.
A short while ago, the Iranian forces in Syria decided to strike at Israel in the hope of inflicting some real damage on the Israelis and perhaps even getting them to stop their periodic attacks on Iranian weapons transfers to Hezbollah. The Iranians and their allies launched 32 missiles at Israeli positions in the Golan Height, the Israeli controlled region just over the border from Syria. The Iranians kept the targeting to that small area because they did not want to take the risk of inciting major retaliation from Israel had major population centers been targeted. It didn't work. Not a single one of the 32 missiles hit its target. Five were shot down. Twenty-seven fell short of the mark and landed inside Syria itself.
On top of the failure of the Iranian missile attack, the response from the Israelis was immediate and severe. Israeli planes launched attacks on about 60% of all the Iranian installations in Syria with major damage being done to the Iranian military infrastructure. All Israeli planes returned safely. The Russians did not use their anti-aircraft systems to interfere with the Israeli strikes. In one night, Iran's Syrian power was severely curtailed.
Now, things are getting worse for the mullahs in Teheran. Reports say that Israel, Jordan, Russia and the Assad regime in Syria have agreed that Iranian forces and their Hezbollah terrorist supporters will be pulled back at least about 40 miles from the border with Israel. The border crossing from Jordan to Syria will be put into the hands of the Assad forces and all Iranians will also be removed from that region. Russia has given the Israeli air force its consent for the Israelis to continue to strike at the Iranians if necessary provided that Israel does not hit the Assad forces or Russian forces. Meanwhile the main border crossing between Iraq and Syria will remain in the hands of the Syrian Democratic forces and American troops. No Iranians will be allowed there either. The Iranian sphere of influence inside Syria is shrinking rapidly.
There are even reports that the Assad regime has agreed with the Russians that all Iranian and Hezbollah forces must be withdrawn from Syria. We will have to see that actually happen to believe it, but if it occurs, it will be a major disaster for the Iranians.
Even inside Iraq, there appears to be bad news for the Iranians. The party that led the recent elections in Iraq is Shiite, like the Iranians, but it is also Arab and nationalistic rather than supportive of the Iranian government.
On top of all this, the Iranians are facing an onslaught from the USA in the form of renewed sanctions with the withdrawal by President Trump of US participation in the Iranian nuke deal.
In other words, it has been a really terrible month or two for the Iranians.
This is a major reversal of where Iran was at the end of the Obama years. Obama's policy towards Iran was to not confront the mullahs but rather to try to encourage better relations and to remove irritants in the hope of bringing Iran into the peaceful nations of the world. It was a naïve and fruitless policy, but Obama followed it from start to finish. As a result, Iran got a major foothold in Iraq and an even stronger base of operations in Syria. There was talk of an Iranian crescent across the Middle East with the Iranians in charge in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon (through Hezbollah).
In recent days, the Israelis have made clear to the Russians that Israel will not tolerate an Iranian presence on their border. The Russians don't care much about the Iranians, but they want to preserve their bases and influence inside Syria. The Russians also want to preserve good relations with Israel. As a result, Moscow was rather quick to agree that the Iranians have to go.
At the same time, American foreign policy has been to push towards ousting Iran from Syria. It seems most likely that the USA has told the Russians that so long as the Iranians leave Syria, the USA won't push to get the Russians out of there as well. That would be a major bonus for the Russians if they cooperate to get the Iranians out.
There's no way to know for certain what the future holds for Syria. One thing, though, is certain: there will be a brighter future for Syria and all its people if the Iranians are no longer there inciting violence.
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