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Friday, March 18, 2011

Libya -- a cease fire?

Today, the Foreign Minister of the Libyan government (Gaddafi side) announced a cease fire in Libya due to the UN no fly zone. It will be interesting to see what this truly means. My guess is that it will not mean that there is a cease fire. I suspect that instead we will see claims from the government that the rebels have attacked and that they are forced to respond. Gaddafi has not ever told the truth, and there is no reason to assume that he will begin to do so now. On the other hand, if I am incorrect and there is a true cease fire, then it will come with the overwhelming bulk of the country in government hands. There is no reason to believe that the rebels will be able to take back any areas that they previously lost to Gaddafi's forces. this will, in turn, put maximum pressure on the countries carrying out the no fly zone. Do they continue to keep it in place? Do they take further action against a newly peaceful adversary to force Gaddafi out? Hmm....

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