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Sunday, March 20, 2011

We Promise you a Long War

The words of Colonel Gaddafi about the no fly zone and the accompanying airstrikes shows that he has learned well the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan. Gaddafi understands that the greatest concern about Libya is that it not drag on with continuing casualties. In a way, it is almost poetic to hear this. For years during the Iraq War, we heard a non-stop chorus from the left complaining about the war; it got so bad that Harry Reid announced that the war was lost. There is no need to rehash all of the anti-war rhetoric; I am sure everyone remembers it. Now, instead of a Republican in the White House, the left has one of their own in position. And yet Obama has begun another war. What happens now? Does MoveOn start smashing Obama for the conflict? Will all those Democrats who blasted Iraq now do the same in Libya? The answer, of course, depends on how long this lasts. A two week or two month engagement will not bring much meaningful opposition. On the other hand, if fighting is still going on in Libya during the election season in 2012, it will present Obama with a terrible quandry. He will lose part of his base if the fighting continues. On the other hand, he may be unable to stop it. It would be nice to see Obama who was a complete opportunist with regard to Iraq get some sort of karmic payback for his actions.

There is, of course, a way around this problem and it will be interesting to see if Obama follows it: he can announce now that all US forces will stop acting in Libya by August 1, 2011. This is the familiar Obama method of announcing a pull out date far in advance so as to make clear to our adversaries how long they have to put up with US attacks. On the other hand, he could unleash the full might of the US military to crush Gaddafi's forces. That battle should take at most a month. After that, Obama can pull out and leave others to deal with what is left.

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