Demography as the Future

Not long ago, I discussed how many in the media have started writing about possible combinations of states that Barack Obama could put together to win his re-election bid. The media narrative has changed from Obama is unbeatable (last May) to Obama is a likely victor (July) to Obama has a path to victory by winning certain states in the electoral college. Now we are seeing yet another spate of stories with a new narrative about the election. This storyline tells us that changes in the electorate will offset the poor economic conditions and allow Obama to win re-election. I will not bore you with all the details, but the basic argument in these pieces is that the voters of 2012 will include a higher number of minorities than the 2008 voters. Further, among whites, there will be a higher proportion of college graduates than there were four years earlier. As a result, even though Obama's share of these groups may decline, he will still win re-election.

The new main stream media narrative is a clear sign that Obama's chances for re-election continue to decline. The media is not even talking much about specific states anymore since the combinations that would be needed for victory are getting more and more difficult to justify. No, now we are told that Obama will win on demographics alone. The truth, however, is that the folks writing these articles seem more intent on convincing themselves that their hero will still win than they are in reporting news or even presenting insightful commentary.

Let's consider the facts. In 2008, Obama was elected the first African American president and black voter turnout jumped up extraordinarily. The 2008 election saw the highest turnout by African American voters in recent history. After four years of economic chaos and without the historic nature of electing the first black president, the turnout of this group in 2012 is likely to decline rather than increase.

The minority community that most likely will increase its share of the electorate in 2012 is Hispanic America. These voters do not have the same connection to Obama as is present in the African American community. Indeed, just imagine the effect on the voting by this group is the GOP nominates Marco Rubio as the first Hispanic candidate for national office. Rubio's presence on the ticket should lock up Florida for the Republicans, but it also ought to draw many Hispanic voters in Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, California, Nevada and elsewhere. Just imagine if just 15% of Hispanics decide that due to Rubio's presence on the ticket they will vote for the Republican. I would mean the end of Obama's chances for re-election.

Then there is also the question of the level of turnout within the Republican base. In 2008, many marginal voters in the GOP base were discouraged and just did not vote. These voters were far from enthusiastic about McCain, and they were not happy with the Bush administration either. In 2012, however, Obama supplies the energy to these same folks. Just imagine the lure of casting a vote to repeal Obamacare, to get rid of bailouts, to free up the economy and to return to more conservative governing principles. Obama is not a personal target for most of these folks, but his policies have enormous bullseyes on them. A return to the turnout levels of 2004 for the GOP base will also probably seal the doom for Obama's candidacy.

The ultimate truth, however, is that demography will not decide the next election. In fact, it is an amazing manifestation of clearly the Democrats take the minority vote for granted that these articles even get written. What will actually decide the next election are events and policies with a dash of campaign strategy and performance thrown in. If the economy continues in the doldrums, Obama will be hard pressed to win. If we fall into a double dip recession, Obama is toast. If the GOP candidate presents common sense policies to the American people that seem likely to work, again Obama will lose. In fact, if Obama does not finally come forward and tell us all what he plans for a second term (or even for the rest of this one), he will ultimately fail. So next time you read one of these articles discussing how Obama will win, just remember that the author is writing this for the other people who, like him, live in the liberal media bubble that is the main stream media. Reality will appear on election day, but until that gets close these stories will just keep on coming.