Once More on Syria

Over the weekend, we learned that Russia has sent its navy to patrol in the Syrian waters of the Mediterranean Sea, a move designed to deter any attempt at foreign intervention in Syria. Let's analyze how this plays out:

1) The Assad regime in Syria is busy killing its own people in a frenetic attempt to stay in power. The death toll is now close to 4000.

2) The Arab League, that moribund collection of countries that never seems to be able to agree on anything, has vigorously condemned Assad and called for an end to the violence.

3) Western Europeans like the UK and France have denounced the killings and have also begun meeting with the opposition groups fighting the Assad regime.

4) Turkey, which ought to be an ally of Syria, has condemned the killings and is giving sanctuary to many refugees escaping from the slaughter. In return, Syrian forces have been chasing some of those leaving over the border. The situation is tense.

5) Iran, which is the main supporter of the Assad regime, has been extending more and more help to Assad while announcing that the killing should stop. Iran cannot afford to lose Assad since this would also cut Iran off from its client group in Lebanon: the terrorists at Hezbollah.

6) When the UN Security Council attempted to pass a resolution to call for the massacre to stop, Russia and China vetoed it. The UN has done nothing as a result.

7) The USA has been almost completely silent about Syria. The State Department has made noises about how the Assad regime has to stop the killing, but the White House has pretty much ignored the situation.

8) The absence of any commitment from president Obama to get involved in stopping the killing in Syria has emboldened the Russians. Putin knows that by putting warships in the Med near Syria, he will stop Britain and France from taking action. Neither country would risk a confrontation with Russia; they were prepared for air support in undefended Libya, but do not want an actual military opponent. Putin knows that the USA will do nothing; he has listened well to the silence coming from Obama. Had Obama come forward with a forceful statement against Assad and coupled that will a strong non-military response like real sanctions against Syria, Putin would have thought twice before sending in those ships. Obama's silence has thus prolonged the killing.

It is a disgrace that America is silent while thousands die needlessly so that a ruthless dictator can keep his hold on power. Sadly, it is probably too late for words from Obama to do any good now. Russia has already committed its forces here and that makes it unlikely that Putin would lose face by pulling out now. Obama has managed to transform a situation where words would have sufficed to one that is moving inevitably to a full scale civil war. I fear that the 4000 dead to date will be just a small down payment on the losses in the future.