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Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Do they read this stuff?

Today in the Washington Times, there is an article about how Iran could close the Persian gulf to shipping in the event of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. It is the usual scare piece. Basically, it says, "OMG, the world will come to an end if Iran is attacked. We will have attacks against schools in Iowa as a result."

I am not advocating or opposing an attack on the Iranian nuclear program. Rather, I am commenting on the journalists who are busy writing scare stories. The truth is that I doubt they even bother to read what they wrote. Here is a good example: the story quotes John Pike of Globalsecurity.org who says that Iran would close the Persian gulf and then adds “Attacking Persian Gulf shipping is tricky for them, since the Saudis are not completely dependent on the Persian Gulf, whereas Iran is. But attacks would drive up the price of oil, which would benefit Iran.”

So let's make this clear. Iran could stop all oil from transiting the Persian gulf. That would cut off all of Iran's own exports and some of the oil coming from Saudi Arabia. But Iran, which would no longer be able to sell oil would benefit since the price of oil would go up. Huh? Higher prices on a commodity that Iran could no longer sell clearly would not benefit Iran. One need not be an oil expert to understand this point.

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