In the last few weeks, Newt Gingrich has popped up in the GOP polls and now is moving into position as the main alternative to Mitt Romney. For the longest time, however, Romney has done much better in head to head matchups with Obama. Now that seems to be changing. In a McClatchy Marist poll just realeased, Obama/Gingrich is at 47 to 45% and Obama/Romney is at 48 to 44%. Both of these results are within the margin of error, but the point is that Newt is running at least even with Mitt Romney. Further, based upon these results, it looks like either one has a good chance to beat Obama.
All of this seems strange to me. I can see where Gingrich could move up in the GOP polls based upon those in the base who watched the various debates. I would normally assume, however, that all of those Republicans would have chosen Gingrich over Obama in past polls even if he were not their first choice for the nomination. For Gingrich to get to his current numbers, he had to win over some Obama voters and also pick up some of the undecided voters. The extent of the move surprises me.
It may well be that this poll is an outlier and we will see a return to earlier patterns. On the other hand, if these numbers continue, it will be a great blow to the Romney campaign since it removes his claim to be the most likely to beat Obama.
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