Let me explain. First of all, the issue of whether or not the world is warming is not one of belief; it is a fact which can be determined from the temperature data. What that data shows is that in the last 50 years, there were three distinct trend lines in global temperature data. In the first part of that period (until the late 1970s), there was a decline in the average global temperature. This is the data that gave rise to the stories in the 1970s about global cooling and the impending ice age. For the next twenty years (until the late 1990s) the data shows that global temperatures were rising. Some of this was the bounce back from the cooling of the previous twenty years, but the temperatures went above those present at the start of that cooling period. This is the data that gave rise to Al Gore and the global warming alarmist crowd. For the last twelve years (through 2011), there has been essentially no change in the average global temperature. Let me say that again so that no one misses it. FOR THE LAST 12 YEARS THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN THE AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE!!! Some of those years have been warmer and others cooler, but at the end of the twelve year period, the average temperature is less than .05 degrees different than it was at the start. If the Earth were still warming, one would expect that the most recent twelve year period would show some evidence of warming. After all, the carbon dioxide which is supposedly the cause of the warming has increased rapidly during that twelve year period. Indeed, even the alarmists realize that the warming has stopped. That is why "global warming" became "climate change" in the media.
Here is some other data that ought to cause some consternation among the global warming crowd. If, as the alarmists claim, the earth has been steadily warming for a little over a century, we ought to be seeing higher high temperatures achieved around the USA. The NOAA, however, publishes data as to the highest temperatures reached in each state. Let's look at what that data shows, and to be conservative, I will use the latest date that a high temperature is achieved. In other words, if the high were reach both in 1922 and in 2002, I will count that temperature as one reached in 2002. Here is what we find for the last 100 years:
During the decade beginning with 1910, 6 states set their all time high temperature.
During the 1920s, two states hit its all time high.
During the 1930s, there were 21 state that hit the record highest temperature.
The 1940s had no record highs, but 5 states hit the record high during the 1950s.
In the 1960s there was only 1 state that set a record high.
The 1970s saw two high temperature records set.
The 1980s saw three such records set.
The 1990s saw six states set record highs.
The first decade of the 21st century saw only one state set a new high temperature.
The point of this data is simple: if the earth were truly warming, the record high temperatures would be coming much more frequently at the end of the last century rather than at the beginning. But it is not.
Of course, this all addresses just the first of the three key questions regarding global warming.
1) Is the earth warming?
2) If there is warming, is it predominantly the result of the activities of man?
3) If there is warming, is there anything that we can do to stop it?
Sadly, the public is fed a steady diet of stories announcing global warming rather than articles that report the actual facts. The truth is that right now there is no proof of continuing warming around the globe. That trend ended over a decade ago. It may resume, but there is no evidence yet that this has happened. There is also no evidence that any of the previous temperature changes were due to human activity. Indeed, the computer models that were the basis for the original global warming hysteria all predicted that during the last twelve years there should have been a steady but rapid rise in temperatures. That did not happen. In other words, the models were wrong, so they certainly provide no evidence that human activity caused the warming. As to the question about what can be done to stop warming, the answer is really simple. We do not know if there is continuing warming and there is no proof that mankind has caused it. That means no one actually knows why the average temperatures move up or down. Until we understand that mechanism, there are no steps to be taken. Simply put, despite the enless harangues of the Al Gore crowd, we would not know what to do.
No comments:
Post a Comment