I was thinking about some of the truths of the last few years and how they now have turned out not to be so true. Many of them are quite startling, and more than one is still accepted despite the proof to the contrary. Here is just a sample of them:
1) The tidal wave of immigration to the USA from Latin America combined with the high birth rates for the Latino community is pushing the country to a point where we will soon have a "minority majority". Well, maybe not. It seems that in the last four years, more people have left the USA for Mexico than have come the other way. These are not "legal" statistics; they include both legal and illegal immigration. The figures for the rest of Latin America still have more folks arriving than departing, but the overall total from the area has dropped to the point where it is no longer the main source of immigrants to the USA. That distinction now goes to East Asia. Then there is the birth rate. During the last four years, the American birth rate has declined overall, but the birth rate for whites and blacks have stayed just about steady. Nearly the entire decline has come from a drop in the birth rate for Hispanics. The fall has been above 30%. This may prove to be temporary, a response to the poor economic conditions. On the other hand, it may turn out to be more enduring. Put this all together and we find that the trend towards an increasing Hispanic minority has not stopped, but it has slowed almost to a standstill.
2) Here is a simple truth that has great currency: the Earth is warming. I am not now speaking about the cause of the warming, just the trend in temperatures around the globe. From the late 1970s to the late 1990s, there is no question that the measurements of temperatures around the world were increasing. (To put this in context, for the fifteen years prior to the start of that period, the temperatures had been falling.) Since the end of the 1990s, however, just about at the point where Global Warming became a cause celebre, temperatures have stabilized. The readings around the world are, on average, essentially unchaged from twelve years ago. All those compute models predicting doom for the world said that by now, we ought to have warmed by almost a full degree on average. We have not. Now, don't expect to see much of this reported in the media. Global Warming remains a part of the received wisdom of the main stream media. Everything from Hurricane Sandy to drought in the plains is blamed on warmer global temperatures. If that basic underpinning were to be removed, the media would be unable to blame these catastrophes on the actions of mankind or the obstinence of a particular political party. Just know that this is one truth that has been shown to be not so true.
3) Americans believe in the American Dream. Each of us, or so the truth goes, wants a chance to work hard for the possibility of a big payoff through success. Well, it seems that this truth is also false. In November, the candidate promoting the American Dream was defeated by the candidate of the welfare state. I realize that this is quite an oversimplification of the election, but it is accurate nevertheless. If there really were a majority of Americans who wanted equal opportunity as opposed to the stagnation of equal results, Obama would have lost big. He did not.
1) The tidal wave of immigration to the USA from Latin America combined with the high birth rates for the Latino community is pushing the country to a point where we will soon have a "minority majority". Well, maybe not. It seems that in the last four years, more people have left the USA for Mexico than have come the other way. These are not "legal" statistics; they include both legal and illegal immigration. The figures for the rest of Latin America still have more folks arriving than departing, but the overall total from the area has dropped to the point where it is no longer the main source of immigrants to the USA. That distinction now goes to East Asia. Then there is the birth rate. During the last four years, the American birth rate has declined overall, but the birth rate for whites and blacks have stayed just about steady. Nearly the entire decline has come from a drop in the birth rate for Hispanics. The fall has been above 30%. This may prove to be temporary, a response to the poor economic conditions. On the other hand, it may turn out to be more enduring. Put this all together and we find that the trend towards an increasing Hispanic minority has not stopped, but it has slowed almost to a standstill.
2) Here is a simple truth that has great currency: the Earth is warming. I am not now speaking about the cause of the warming, just the trend in temperatures around the globe. From the late 1970s to the late 1990s, there is no question that the measurements of temperatures around the world were increasing. (To put this in context, for the fifteen years prior to the start of that period, the temperatures had been falling.) Since the end of the 1990s, however, just about at the point where Global Warming became a cause celebre, temperatures have stabilized. The readings around the world are, on average, essentially unchaged from twelve years ago. All those compute models predicting doom for the world said that by now, we ought to have warmed by almost a full degree on average. We have not. Now, don't expect to see much of this reported in the media. Global Warming remains a part of the received wisdom of the main stream media. Everything from Hurricane Sandy to drought in the plains is blamed on warmer global temperatures. If that basic underpinning were to be removed, the media would be unable to blame these catastrophes on the actions of mankind or the obstinence of a particular political party. Just know that this is one truth that has been shown to be not so true.
3) Americans believe in the American Dream. Each of us, or so the truth goes, wants a chance to work hard for the possibility of a big payoff through success. Well, it seems that this truth is also false. In November, the candidate promoting the American Dream was defeated by the candidate of the welfare state. I realize that this is quite an oversimplification of the election, but it is accurate nevertheless. If there really were a majority of Americans who wanted equal opportunity as opposed to the stagnation of equal results, Obama would have lost big. He did not.
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