News today has the United Nations envoy for Syria telling the world that the Syrian civil war threatens to engulf the entire region. Speaking in Moscow, the UN envoy said that should fighting get worse in certain areas of Syria like Damascus, there could be as many as one million refugees fleeing the area. Those people supposedly will all go to either Jordan or Lebanon, a move which, according to the envoy, will break those countries. At the same event, the Russian foreign minister announced again that Russia will not agree to any "solution" to the problem which results in the removal of Assad from power.
What does this all mean? The reality is that this event is another bit of evidence that Assad is on his way out. The UN envoy was in Moscow after having been in Damascus to speak to Assad. He paints a bleak, albeit false portrait of the near term future in Syria. The fighting is going to intensify in the Damascus area, we are told. That means that the rebels will be moving in for the kill. A million refugees will be on the move, we are told. That means that Assad will continue to attack and bomb population centers taken over by the rebels. But why would anyone expect these refugees to go to Jordan or Lebanon? Surely some of them will be allowed across the border, but Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq are extremely unlikely to allow the wholesale movement of refugees from Syria into their countries. Further, there are certainly plenty of places within Syria where the refugees could go, provided that Assad does not decide to use attacks on refugee centers as his next terror tactic.
When one adds in the Russian statement, it boils down to "things are getting worse, and the only way to avoid a mess is for the world to force the rebels to agree to keep Assad in power." This is not very likely, but it does show just how desperate Assad has gotten.
What does this all mean? The reality is that this event is another bit of evidence that Assad is on his way out. The UN envoy was in Moscow after having been in Damascus to speak to Assad. He paints a bleak, albeit false portrait of the near term future in Syria. The fighting is going to intensify in the Damascus area, we are told. That means that the rebels will be moving in for the kill. A million refugees will be on the move, we are told. That means that Assad will continue to attack and bomb population centers taken over by the rebels. But why would anyone expect these refugees to go to Jordan or Lebanon? Surely some of them will be allowed across the border, but Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq are extremely unlikely to allow the wholesale movement of refugees from Syria into their countries. Further, there are certainly plenty of places within Syria where the refugees could go, provided that Assad does not decide to use attacks on refugee centers as his next terror tactic.
When one adds in the Russian statement, it boils down to "things are getting worse, and the only way to avoid a mess is for the world to force the rebels to agree to keep Assad in power." This is not very likely, but it does show just how desperate Assad has gotten.
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