In the New York Post today, there is an opinion piece by Arthur Herman with a very interesting premise. Herman says that the power and influence of Russia is going to decline dramatically in Europe because of large natural gas discoveries under the Mediterranean in Israel. Right now, according to Herman, the Russians supply one quarter of European gas needs and it gives them a strangle hold on the continent's energy supply. Herman expects that within a few years natural gas exports from Israel will reduce the ability of Russia to use its natural gas exports to control other countries in Europe. The truth, however, is something quite different.
First of all, the Israeli deposits are huge for a small country like Israel, but they are not large enough to supply Europe. To put this in context, the total gas in the two large Israeli field discovered so far are just about one fifth of the recoverable gas found in just one American field, the Marcellus Shale. Herman might respond by pointing out that Israel does not have to supply the entire continent; it needs only replace a significant part of the Russian supply. Nevertheless, the Europeans will continue to get a large quantity of gas from Russia, no matter what the Israelis and others do. Putin's days as energy tsar of Europe are far from over.
First of all, the Israeli deposits are huge for a small country like Israel, but they are not large enough to supply Europe. To put this in context, the total gas in the two large Israeli field discovered so far are just about one fifth of the recoverable gas found in just one American field, the Marcellus Shale. Herman might respond by pointing out that Israel does not have to supply the entire continent; it needs only replace a significant part of the Russian supply. Nevertheless, the Europeans will continue to get a large quantity of gas from Russia, no matter what the Israelis and others do. Putin's days as energy tsar of Europe are far from over.
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