The attack on the protests in Kiev of the last few hours are big news around the world. Right now, I am at the southern tip of South America (Tierra del Fuego) and even here, the story is big news. The key to what is happening now, however, is that the entire future of the Ukraine as well as the future of Russia and its place in the world are at stake. On one side in the Ukraine we have the government which has ended ties to the European Union and moved closer to Russia since November (and before). On the other side are the protests by ordinary Ukrainians who see the move towards Russia as the first step towards the re-establishment of Russian rule over the area. Remember, the Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union for nearly 300 years. Even so, the people had a separate identity from the Russians which remained no matter what the Russians did. During the 1930s, Stalin ran programs from Moscow that led to the starvation of something close to ten million people, most of whom were in the Ukraine. When the Germans invaded during World War II, the Ukraine saw their forces as liberators of the land from Russian domination. The enmity towards Russia came out again with the celebrations in Kiev of the collapse of the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics in 1991.
The current move by the government is a push to end opposition to a renewed control of the country from Moscow. We may not see actually reunification of Russia and the Ukraine for a while, but if the current course remains unchanged, Putin and his kleptocracy in Moscow will move into actual control of Kiev.
Let's put this into proper perspective for the USA. Russia without the Ukraine is a strong power, but it cannot be a superpower again. Russia with the Ukraine under its control is another matter. Allowing Russia to rule in Kiev would be perhaps the stupidest move that president Obama and his foreign affairs team could ever make. It would be worse in the long run than a nuclear Iran or a terrorist state in Syria. In truth, it would be something that could reignite the old Cold War mentality and confrontation. Remember, there are more than ten other former Soviet republics that are now independent and which have no desire to come back under the control of Moscow. If they watch the largest and most important of them all, the Ukraine, fall back under Russian control with nothing more than a speech or two from the USA, they will know that they are on their own and will have to kowtow to the Russians accordingly. Then there are all the old Eastern European satellites that are now free countries. The lesson of the loss of the Ukraine is another one that would be hard for these folks to miss.
President Obama must manage this situation in a way that helps the Ukrainian people keep away from Russian domination. It is going to take more than speeches. America and the world need to see real action from Washington.
The current move by the government is a push to end opposition to a renewed control of the country from Moscow. We may not see actually reunification of Russia and the Ukraine for a while, but if the current course remains unchanged, Putin and his kleptocracy in Moscow will move into actual control of Kiev.
Let's put this into proper perspective for the USA. Russia without the Ukraine is a strong power, but it cannot be a superpower again. Russia with the Ukraine under its control is another matter. Allowing Russia to rule in Kiev would be perhaps the stupidest move that president Obama and his foreign affairs team could ever make. It would be worse in the long run than a nuclear Iran or a terrorist state in Syria. In truth, it would be something that could reignite the old Cold War mentality and confrontation. Remember, there are more than ten other former Soviet republics that are now independent and which have no desire to come back under the control of Moscow. If they watch the largest and most important of them all, the Ukraine, fall back under Russian control with nothing more than a speech or two from the USA, they will know that they are on their own and will have to kowtow to the Russians accordingly. Then there are all the old Eastern European satellites that are now free countries. The lesson of the loss of the Ukraine is another one that would be hard for these folks to miss.
President Obama must manage this situation in a way that helps the Ukrainian people keep away from Russian domination. It is going to take more than speeches. America and the world need to see real action from Washington.
1 comment:
Action from B.S. central, that is a song & a prayer.
OBAMA has made the image of the U.S. be of weakness not strength.
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